Tier 5: “Is he a System QB?” OR “Is he the System?”

#14. Brock Purdy

• Brock Purdy was one of my most complex rankings on this list. Purdy has had very consistent statistical success over the past two seasons. Although this success comes with the fact that he is fortunate to have the most talented offensive skill position groups in the NFL, it is still worth highlighting. Brock has accumulated some great statistics in his two seasons in the NFL, and 2023 was his first season as a full-time starter. Purdy threw for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdown passes against only 11 interceptions while quarterbacking the San Francisco 49ers to an overtime Super Bowl loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Purdy had a 78.3 % adjusted completion rate in 2023, which ranked top five in the NFL while having a 5.4% big-time throw %, which both show that he has excellent timing and accuracy while also being able to anticipate some potential ample play opportunities and make things happen. Purdy is a much more confident player than the average NFL fan realizes and is not afraid to take chances with his elite weapons on the outside.
• I will fully admit to being one of Purdy’s harsher critics over his time in the NFL. However, how he rallied San Francisco in the NFC Championship game was extremely impressive, as he utilized his legs to gain a few crucial first downs. Ultimately, Purdy was able to make a few plays that Jared Goff was unable to, and this is the main reason I have Purdy ahead of Goff in my rankings. The main reason Purdy is not higher on my list is because of the simple fact that I believe all of the quarterbacks ranked ahead of him would perform better than Purdy in San Francisco, and I think if Purdy were to switch spots with any of these QB’s his stats would suffer. However, it is not Brock Purdy’s fault he was gifted a great quarterback situation, and he has taken full advantage.
• Tier Label: System QB showing flashes of becoming the system.

#15. Jared Goff

• In 2023, Jared Goff had 4,575 passing yards (2nd), 30 passing touchdowns (4th), and finished in the top 10 in both passer rating and QBR. Goff also recorded an 85.2 passing grade, a 3.4% big-time throw percentage, and a 2.4 % turnover-worthy play rate, all career bests. These statistics back up Goff’s reputation as an efficient quarterback who takes what NFL defenses give him. Detroit’s front office has done a great job accumulating elite talent at skill positions and has built one of the best offensive lines in the NFL to protect Goff. During Goff’s time as the Lions starting quarterback, he leads the NFL in 4th quarter and overtime OBR at 72, while in the red zone he threw 18 touchdowns against 0 interceptions in 2023 which was by far the league’s best number. According to the ESPN quarterback rankings, Goff is also accumulating respect from his peers for his ability and overall toughness to find his receivers in tight windows; as an NFL coordinator told ESPN, “He’s the best in the NFL at throwing into zone coverage windows, I’ve shown young quarterbacks’ tape of him and how he throws with anticipation.”
• The main reasons Goff is ranked in the middle of the pack are the 2023 NFC Championship game and the fact that the Rams immediately won a Super Bowl in the first year after trading Goff. First, the Lions had a 17-point lead going into halftime against the 49ers. However, a lethal combination of mistakes, bad tackling, and questionable coaching calls led the 49ers to come back and score 27 unanswered points on the way to the 34-31 victory. While Goff was not the primary catalyst behind this collapse, as the quarterback, he had the most significant opportunity to make one or two plays that would have sealed the game for Detroit. While watching this game, it was clear that Purdy could avoid the pressure and use his legs just enough to give the defense a different look, while Goff kept his play style the same. I believe Goff cannot adjust his game too much, as when things are good, Goff is great; however, when things break down and he faces pressure, things tend to go wrong. Goff receiving such a large contract will be a significant factor in Detroit taking a step back in the coming years, as he is not elite enough to get paid over 50 million a year.
• Tier Label: System QB who can elevate teammates slightly due to the power of friendship.

#16. Kirk Cousins

• This was another extremely challenging ranking for me, as Kirk Cousins has been one of the more consistent NFL quarterbacks over the previous six seasons. According to Pro Football Focus, Kirk has not posted any seasons graded below 80 during the past six seasons. However, his play in 2023 showed flashes of regression. Cousins could only play in eight games in 2023 due to a torn Achilles; however, before the season-ending injury, he was on pace for the lowest big-time throw rate in his career by far. Cousins also was on pace for the lowest turnover-worthy throw rate of his career while having a career-high adjusted completion % and a career-low average depth of target. These all point to Kirk being a bit more cautious last season, which backs up the eye test.
• Going into the 2024 NFL season, Cousins is now 36 years old and coming off the Achilles tear while joining a new team in Atlanta that is very talented at the skill position spots. Cousins will be fortunate to throw to the likes of Drake London and Kyle Pitts while leaning on Sophomore Superstar Running Back Bijan Robinson a la Dalvin Cook during Cousins’s time in Minnesota. The Falcons also questionably decided to draft quarterback Micheal Penix Jr in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, which adds unneeded pressure to Cousin’s situation. Kirk Cousins has been highly efficient throughout his career and will need to be more aggressive in 2024. The combination of skill talent and the fact that Cousins will need to hold off the upcoming rookie on the depth chart will ultimately lead to Cousins being more aggressive in 2024.
• Tier Label: System QB who you can make the playoffs with, good luck getting more.

#17. Baker Mayfield

• In 2023, Baker Mayfield threw for 4,044 passing yards and 28 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, which were all career bests. This career year ended in Mayfield being invited to the 2024 Pro Bowl Games, eventually earning the MVP. This unexpected career revival shows how Mayfield persevered and showed how new environments can have extreme impacts on individual players. Mayfield entered 2023 on a “prove it” one-year contract where, if he performed at a below-average level, this could have ultimately spelled doom for his NFL career; fortunately, Mayfield performed well enough to earn a three-year contract extension. Mayfield had 25 big-time throws and 22 turnover-worthy plays overall in 2023; however, Mayfield performed at an elite level during his last four games. During these final four games, Mayfield registered a top-10 passing grade, highlighted by a Week 15 win on the road in Green Bay, which ultimately launched the Buccaneers to a playoff berth.
• Mayfield had to play under eight different head coaches in his first six seasons, and he did not ultimately break. However, Baker’s critical question in 2024 is just how much more turnover he can take. Dave Canales left his position as Tampa’s offensive coordinator to become Carolina’s new head coach, and his play-calling was a critical factor in helping Mayfield have a career resurgence. Canales was able to maximize Mayfield’s strengths and consistently gave him favorable situations, and Canales also helped resurrect Geno Smith’s career in Seattle the year prior. Geno Smith’s play declined last season without Canales, and it is a fair concern to have if the same thing will happen in Tampa Bay in 2024 as well. Baker clearly uses doubters and haters as fuel, and he hopes to continue his career rebirth with new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen. Baker was also one of the better quarterback actors of his time, and I hope to see some new commercials featuring Mayfield in the future.
• Tier Label: Equal Part System QB and Equal Part Capable of Being the System.

#18. Tua Tagovailoa

• In the 2023 season, Tua Tagovailoa showcased his potential as a quarterback, leading the entire NFL in passing grade during the regular season with an impressive 88.9. He also ranked third in the NFL in big-time throws with 35. However, it’s worth noting that he had a 3.5% turnover-worthy play rate, the highest among the top 5 quarterbacks in big-time throws. He also had 25 turnover-worthy plays, the 5th most in the entire NFL. When everything is going according to plan, Tua can be an elite quarterback, and Coach Mcdaniels’ play calling strategy is instrumental in getting Tua’s first read open, as Tua had the lowest time to throw of any starting quarterback in the NFL in 2023 at 2.33 seconds.
• Interestingly, Tua also had the most turnover-worthy in the NFL when there was no pressure, which leads me to believe that he struggles to improvise past the initial play design and as expected. His passing grade takes a significant dip when he is pressured, as he does not have elite pocket movement or athleticism to escape. Watching Dolphins games over the previous two seasons, I see that Tua has a decent enough arm for the NFL. However, it does not allow him to have a large margin of error either. I also believe that Tua depends on Coach McDaniel far too much, and there are far too many instances of Tua not adjusting pre-snap and having a limited ability to process post-snap. Biggest question I have is, Will Coach Mcdaniels pull a Mcvay and do a Goff/Stafford type trade with a qb in a tier above? Kyler Murray type player makes sense in a trade.
• Tier Label: System QB who is extremely lucky to have Tyreek Hill, has extreme noodle arm that will get exposed.