Tier 6: Sophomore Quarterbacks minus CJ Stroud
#19. Anthony Richardson
- Anthony Richardson was limited to only 98 dropbacks in 2023. However, Richardson showed some extremely strong traits in this small sample size. Richardson was able to make very impressive off-balance throws using his top-5 NFL arm strength and was lethal when he decided to leave the pocket and scramble for yards. This list is purely for Franchise quarterback rankings; however, it would be a disservice to you readers, not to mention that Richardson averaged 0.74 fantasy points per dropback during his time on the field, which ranked #1 in the NFL. Richardson also was only able to play the majority of snaps in just two games during this timeframe, and he was able to finish as the QB4 and QB2 overall in fantasy points for those weeks, so there is potential fantasy football stardom lurking here. Expanding on his fantasy value, he averaged six attempts for 34 yards and scored four rushing touchdowns, accounting for nearly 20% of Colt’s rushing attempts during this same timeframe. Although Richardson missed most of the season, Shane Steichen’s first season in Indianapolis was a success, as the Colts were legitimately competitive last season with Gardner Minshew. The Colts led the NFL in pace, averaging 24 seconds per snap, also led the NFL with a nearly 17% no-huddle rate, and ran RPOs on over 18% of their snaps, which all ranked #1 in the NFL in 2023. I believe this play style perfectly fits Richardson, and if he can stay healthy, it will result in the Colts being a significant surprise team in the AFC.
- Richardson could only play 162 snaps last season, as he suffered a concussion in Week 2, which ended his week early and forced him to miss Week 3, and of course, in Week 5, Richardson suffered his season-ending shoulder injury. Although Richardson has elite Cam Newton-like size and strength, he could greatly benefit from sliding more or getting out of bounds in 2024 to stay healthy. The Colts also selected WR Adonai Mitchell in the 2nd round of the 2024 NFL Draft to add to a potent offense that already includes talented running back Jonathon Taylor and wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Richardson’s primary goal in 2024 should be to stay healthy as he has a rocket arm paired with elite rushing ability; he also must take a massive step in his processing. However, he has both the coaching and supporting cast to do so.
#20. Bryce Young
- Bryce Young’s situation in Carolina last year was about as bad as it can get for a young quarterback as Frank Reich and the Panthers organization failed him. The combination of play calling and lack of talent on the Panthers offense left Young having to make tough throws in his rookie year. According to FTN, Young averaged only 1.63 yards of separation per pass attempt when targeting wide receivers and tight ends last season, which was good for the fourth-lowest number in the NFL last season, and Carolina only had 34 total wide receiver receptions in which the targeted receiver had at least three yards of separation. At the same time, his receivers and tight ends averaged 2.7 yards after the catch per pass attempt, which ranked very low compared to the NFL average. Young also only had 140 passing attempts in which a skill position player went in motion before the snap, which only accounted for under 27% of his passing attempts, and overall, the Panthers ranked 28th out of 32 NFL teams in overall use of motion at 35%. These stats all point to Carolina being a very uncreative, slow, stagnant offense that heavily relied on a nearly 35-year-old Adam Thielen to get open, which was not exactly the blueprint to success for Young. Young also had to deal with a poor offensive line last year as he was sacked a Carolina franchise-record 60 times in 2023 for a 12% adjusted sack rate (5th highest in NFL). Young also faced pressure on nearly 40% of his dropbacks in 2023, which was suitable for a top-10 highest rate in the NFL.
- Despite these negative statistics, I am very bullish on a Bryce Young Sophomore season comeback season, as Carolina did everything in their power this offseason to set their #1 pick up for success. The Panthers traded for Dionte Johnson this offseason to remedy their WR separation issues, as Johnson has ranked near the top of ESPN’s open score metric and is known for his separation skills. The Panthers also traded into the first round to select Xavier Legette, who combines his elite size and speed to hopefully provide Carolina with much more after-the-catch potential, making Young’s life easier. The Panthers also selected RB Jonathon Brooks, whom many had ranked as the top running back in the class. Brooks excels at catching the ball out of the backfield and should be a seismic upgrade over Miles Sanders and Chubba Hubbard. The Panthers also signed multiple veteran offensive linemen, which should cut down on his high-pressure % numbers from 2023. Finally, the essential addition for Young was the hiring of Dave Canales as the Panther’s next Head Coach; Canales comes off of two straight seasons in which he has helped rebirth careers as he coached Geno Smith in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 to career numbers in each season as each franchises Quarterbacks coach. These factors will likely lead Bryce Young to have a bounce-back year in 2024.
#21. Will Levis
- Will Levis’s first NFL start wasn’t until week 8 in 2023. However, the second half of the NFL season showed he is a very entertaining gunslinger. According to Pro Football Focus, Levis ended up with 16 big-time throws against 14 turnover-worth plays last season and managed two games with a passing grade above 70. After watching a few Titan games in September, compared to when Levis took the reins, the Tennesse Titans had a significantly better chance of winning NFL football games. Levis has a prototypical NFL size of 6’3, 235 lbs., with above-average mobility and excellent arm strength. Levis has the arm talent to be a solid starting quarterback in the NFL but will need to learn when to grip it and rip it and when not to force the issue, as he nearly had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws.
- Levis also needs to do a much better job protecting himself from hits when he leaves the pocket, as he took some unnecessary hits during his rookie year last year. The eye test shows that Levis can generate elite velocity on his throws; however, his inconsistent footwork sometimes causes him to miss on some “layup throws.” While watching the Titans play, Levis sometimes reminded me of Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming. Suppose Levis can clean up his footwork and mechanics as Josh Allen has been able to do. In that case, Levis will significantly improve his ball placement and accuracy and become a franchise quarterback.
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