2024 NFL QB Rankings: Tier 4

Tier 4: Existing, Entering, or Exiting the Circle of Trust

#8. Matthew Stafford

• Matthew Stafford threw for 3,965 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2023 his age 35 season. Stafford finished with a passing grade of 84, which was 7th in the NFL, as well as 32 big-time throws (5th), and he also recorded the NFL’s 2nd lowest turnover-worthy play rate at 2.1%. Abigail van Buren says, “It’s true; some wins improve with age. But only if the grapes were good in the first place.” This rings true with Stafford, as he has always had the gift of one of the strongest arms in the NFL, and even if this talent is shrinking slightly, he can more than makeup for it with his craftiness, creativity, and accumulated wisdom. The Rams’ offense struggled heavily with production, particularly in the first half of the season due to a combination of factors such as injuries, lack of chemistry among the players, and adjustments to a new system.
• They only started to hit on all cylinders after the bye week. This bye week was a sign that the offense was beginning to come together as Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were both on the field, and the running game Kyren Williams led was highly influential in finishing the 2023 season strong. On paper, having high expectations for a 35+-year-old quarterback is not a recipe for success (see the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers last season), as a potential injury to an aging quarterback can deeply expose roster construction flaws. Stafford is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFC entering the 2023 season; however, he has shown that he was something left in the tank. Suppose the Rams are successful and return to the playoffs in 2024. In that case, Matthew Stafford will be the driving force of why; however, if they fail to live up to these high standards, declining quarterback play or injuries to their quarterback will be the main reason why the Rams do not meet expectations. Despite these challenges, the potential of the Rams’ future success is a beacon of hope for the team and its fans.
• Tier Label: Existing in the Circle of Trust.

#9. CJ Stroud

• In 2023, CJ Stroud threw for 4,108 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. These numbers were in the top half of the NFL, and Stroud also displayed multiple clutch moments and drives that were well beyond the normal expectations of a rookie quarterback. Stroud also was able to log the 3rd most 20+ yard completions while having the lowest turnover-worthy throw rate on these deep passes in the entire NFL. This is scarce territory for a rookie NFL quarterback and is a critical factor in why Stroud has cracked the top 10 after just one season in the NFL.
• Stroud had to answer countless questions about a cognition test and his poor results for weeks leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, and quickly, the same people asking the same questions repeatedly were tranquil. The eye test will always be a far better judge of talent than a paper test. As a rookie, Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio, which made himself, Tom Brady, and Joe Montana the only three quarterbacks to accomplish this in the same season. The Texans ultimately won a home playoff game against the Browns and then subsequently lost to the Ravens in Baltimore in the divisional round. Since the playoff loss to the Ravens, the Texans have made several key additions: trading for Stephon Diggs and Pro Bowl defensive end Danielle Hunter, signing linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, and running back Joe Mixon. Adding Diggs and Mixon to the Texans’ 2024 offensive calculus increases the probability that Stroud will have a better and more productive season, as he gained invaluable experience as a rookie quarterback. Despite an awkward exit from Buffalo, Diggs is still extremely explosive and an elite route-runner who has recorded four straight 100 catch 1000-yard seasons in a row.
• I believe that Stroud will become even more aggressive and will push the ball downfield at an even higher rate in 2024, as he was quoted as saying, “I really can say just like owning the offense more, the operation, putting more on my plate with run checks, protection checks things like that,” Stroud explains, “I want to definitely attack down the field more this year, and press guys back and also take what the defense gives me. If it’s boring, if it’s a boring play, just stay with the boring stuff and be efficient with that. So, those are all things I can improve, and I hope to do that.” These quotes are exactly what any Texans fan would want to hear, as Stroud’s maturation and work ethic are significant factors for the entire Houston organization. The Houston Texans have had their quarterback of both the present and the future for a decade-plus years.
• Tier Label: Entering the Circle of Trust

#10. Trevor Lawerence

• Trevor Lawerence threw for 4016 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 2023. Following the 2023 season, the Jaguars gave him a new $275 million contract extension to make him one of the highest-paid players in NFL history. Lawrence had an incredibly rough rookie year in 2021 with Urban Meyer and essentially had a fresh start under Doug Pederson in 2022 and 2023. During these past two seasons, Lawerence has thrown for 8,129 passing yards, 46 passing touchdowns against 22 interceptions, and completed 66% of his passes in this timeframe. The Jaguars, in turn, have had their first consecutive winning seasons since 2005. Urban Meyer’s failure had a huge impact on Lawerence’s development. However, the Jaguars organization fully believes in him, and after two seasons with a competent coaching staff, the Jaguars think he will only continue to improve.
• In the offseason, Coach Pederson said, “He’s engaging and giving us ideas. Now he’s giving us suggestions and ideas and really becoming another coach, a set of eyes on the field. That’s just his growth; that is his development as a quarterback and not changing a lot schematically.” Just watching Lawerence play, I see that he has always shown flashes of brilliance, and I believe he will become a far more consistent quarterback this season and show everyone what he is capable of. Last season, Lawerence ranked in the top five in big-time throws with 33. However, he also finished with 24 turnover-worthy plays, which resulted in 21 turnovers. Pederson believes that Lawerence has taken the next step and will translate it into the field into wins and losses and better td/int and big-time-throw to turnover-worthy play ratios in 2024. The Jaguars also were active in free agency on the defensive side of the ball while signing wide receiver Gabe Davis from the Bills and drafting LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The Jaguars put a ton of faith in Lawerence by giving him the 275 million dollar extension, and time will tell if it was the right move. (It was, trust your eyes with Lawerence; the stats are coming soon).
• Tier Label: Entering the Circle of Trust

#11. Jalen Hurts

• Jalen Hurts had a very up-and-down season in 2023, as he set career marks in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and big-time throws, and setting career highs in interceptions and fumbles. He also managed to record his third straight year of double-digit rushing touchdowns while leading NFL quarterbacks in rushing first downs. Simply observing Eagles games made it apparent that Hurts was not fully healthy during 2023, as he was not as much of a rushing threat as he had been in previous years. In 2023, the Eagles started the season 10-1; however, they finished the season with a disappointing playoff loss to Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. During the final six games after that 10-1 start, Hurts only completed 61% of his passes for only 1,161 passing yards and five passing touchdowns against five interceptions. He was also sacked seven times during this time frame, and the Eagles almost appeared to give up.
• A critical factor in Hurt’s regression from 2022 to 2023 is that 2022 play caller Shane Steichen left to become the Head Coach of the Indianapolis Colts. Overall, Hurts doubled his turnover numbers from 2022 to 2023 and declined nearly a full yard per pass attempt. The addition of Coordinator Kellen Moore should breathe life into Hurt’s 2024 outlook, and there is a much better chance that NFL fans will witness a 2024 iteration of Hurts closer to 2022. Dak Prescott produced some of his best NFL seasons with Moore as his play-caller in 2019-2022, and the addition of Saquon Barkley should significantly impact the Eagles 2024 offense. Although the retirement of Jason Kelce will undoubtedly affect their success, Philadelphia is expected to field one of the more robust offensive line units in the NFL, which will help both Hurts and Barkley have a much better chance to make it through 2024 healthy. Jalen Hurts has one of the more fluid rankings on this list, and I am very excited to see what version of Hurts 2024 will bring.
• Tier Label: Exiting the Circle of Trust

#12. Dak Prescott

• Dak Prescott finished the 2023 season with 4,516 Passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Prescott finished the 2023 regular season with a passing grade of 89.8, which was just barely behind Tua Tagovailoa’s league-leading mark of 89.9, and he led the entire NFL in passing grade while under pressure, finishing with a 73.5 passing grade (According to Pro Football Focus). Prescott also accumulated 37 big-time throws in 2023, which easily led the NFL while having a 2.0% turnover-worthy play rate, leading the entire NFL among quarterbacks with 400 or more dropbacks. These numbers make it nearly impossible to dispute that Dak Prescott is a top-10 NFL quarterback. However, Prescott faces doubters around the NFL. Two anonymous NFL executives anonymously admitted what the majority of NFL decision-makers feel about Prescott, he is an always great regular season quarterback, but these great stats are a red herring, which distracts from the ultimate fact that Prescott is not and never has been the kind of elite difference-making quarterback that can put a team on his back and carry it.
• “He always does well enough to be in the top 10 but never gets over the hump,” an NFC executive told ESPN, “He makes all the throws, he’s playing the position at a high level, but something is missing, certain guys are going to elevate their team late in the game, and Dak doesn’t seem to do that.” Another NFL executive said, “He’s lacking that high-end ceiling. Plays the position really well but is not the elite athlete and passer that Mahomes and Allen are. They need to support him in those big matchups. He’s excellent but not good enough to elevate the entire team in those matchups.” The eye test certainly backs up these quotes, and the fact that Dallas was inactive in free agency does not help Prescott’s 2024 outlook. It was very tough for Prescott that his final game (playoff loss to Packers) was such a disaster, since before then, his 2023 season was a career year. Overall, Prescott was very efficient, aggressive, and accurate in 2023; however, as always, his play asks, “Can he win a Super Bowl for the Cowboys?” and the answer is trending further and further to becoming a resounding no.
• Tier Label: Exiting the Circle of Trust

#13. Kyler Murray

• Kyler Murray tore his ACL in November of the 2022 season, and he returned to action in Week 10 in 2023 to play eight games for the Arizona Cardinals. In these eight games, Murray recorded 1,799 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and five interceptions for a 17-game season pace of around 3800 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. In 2021, Murray had an MVP-caliber season, recording 43 big-time throws against only 14 turnover-worthy plays. However, his play in the 2022 season before his November ACL tear was an extreme step back. Exactly which version of Murray NFL fans will see in 2024 is a big question. All accounts from Arizona say that Murray had a great offseason as new free agent running back Michael Carter said, “The more I’ve gotten to know him, I don’t think he ever leaves the facility; I’m in the building now; I don’t think he leaves here. I don’t know. He’s always here. He’s the freakin first person in. I’m sure he’s the last person out.”
• Carter also went on to explain, “I know for a fact he’s probably the last person out because there’s sometimes when I try to be the first person in. Last week, one time, I was like, ‘You know what? Let me just try to be the first person in.’ I think we had a meeting at 9:15. I think I might’ve got here at like 7:15, maybe. That two hours, you know? That Lambo (Murray’s car) already here… he’s always in the building, a lot of credit to him.” Carter also explains that he sees him constantly grinding, which sets a great example as a team leader and ultimately inspires his teammates to work harder. If these reports are accurate, this would be an incredible new progression in Murray’s career, as in the past, he has been criticized for his overall love of the game, and people have joked that he would rather play Call of Duty (Call of Duty Kyler).
• Murray also posted on Instagram, “Bet the over.” about the total win odds of the Arizona Cardinals for the 2024 NFL season. Most sportsbooks have the over/under for Arizona’s win total in 2024 at 6.5 wins (this is also one of my best bets of the NFL year and will expand on in my NFL betting article). With the addition of superstar rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison paired with year two under Coach Gannon (Arizona is building a great culture which led to multiple upset wins, won $ on Pittsburgh), Murray should be able to move up next year’s edition of this list.
• Tier Label: Exited Circle of Trust in 2023, Should be Reentering to Circle of Trust in 2023.