Tier 2: Elite Quarterbacks Not Named Patrick Mahomes

#2. Josh Allen

• Josh Allen is one of the most entertaining watches in the entire NFL. Allen is a true unicorn of athletic gifts for the quarterback position because of his size, speed, and strength. He reminds me of a combination of Ben Rothlisberger and Cam Newton in the sense that he has Rothlisberger’s ability to extend plays and Newton’s physicality. No NFL player can stay on his feet while taking extreme punishment like Josh Allen. A lot of this punishment is avoidable, and you would hope that as Allen ages, he will become more intelligent with his body. However, this brings us back to him being a 6’6, 250 lb. beast who tries to hurdle or truck every defender in his way; more often than not, Allen is the one who delivers the punishment in his collisions with defenders. He is going to make some mistakes, some of them very head-scratching. However, his ceiling is as high as possible for the position, and he shows it every week, driving and playing.
• From a pure eye test perspective, Allen has the strongest arm in the NFL today and possibly the strongest in NFL history. Allen has averaged just over 600 yards rushing and under nine rushing touchdowns per season, averaging nearly 4,400 yards passing, 34 passing touchdowns, and 14 interceptions since 2020. When he first entered the league, Allen was considered a raw prospect, meaning he had the physical tools but needed time to develop his skills. So, Allen has been averaging well over 300 yards of total offense per game for half a decade with a suspect running game and questionable coaching decisions. Everyone says, “Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda,” but the Bills should have beaten the Chiefs in both 2021 and last year in 2023. Allen is way too talented not to raise a Lombardi Trophy at some point in his career, and he will get it done for the great fans of Buffalo. (They deserve it).

#3. Justin Herbert

• One of the more controversial rankings I know. I recommend anyone who disagrees watch Herbert’s tape at Lambeau against Green Bay in 2023. It was one of the worst WR group performances in recent memory, and you almost started feeling bad for the guy. Coach Jim Harbaugh said in June: “The conditioning test was another eye-opener,” Harbaugh told reporters Tuesday. “He smashed the conditioning test last Thursday. I mean, he crushed it. In front of people, he is trying to keep up with himself. The athleticism and strength here? He could play tight end. He could play edge rusher here. The arm talent is even better than advertised.” I agree with Coach Harbaugh.
• With the crazy circumstances surrounding his debut against Kansas City in 2020 and how well he performed, Herbert most definitely passes the eye test. In 2020, I was unfamiliar with Herbert and did not believe he would be a franchise quarterback. However, he nearly won his debut against Patrick Mahomes with just a few minutes notice that he would even be playing! I am very excited and hopeful to see how Herbert progresses now under Harbaugh’s coaching and to see the front office make some better personnel decisions. Herbert has been a record-breaking quarterback from the start, and listed below are a few of the highlights. Also listed is a career statistical comparison between Herbert and the #4 ranked QB on the list.
• Justin Herbert records: 1. Passing Yards=Justin Herbert surpassed Andrew Luck’s record for the most passing yards by an NFL quarterback in their first two seasons. 2. Total Touchdowns=Justin Herbert broke Dan Marino’s record for the most total touchdowns in an NFL quarterback’s first two seasons. 3. Franchise Records: Herbert set franchise records in his second season with 5,014 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.

#4. Joe Burrow

• Burrow was unable to stay fully healthy during the 2023 NFL season. He started the year with a calf injury that he seemed to have been rushed back from too quickly in the preseason, and then his season officially ended with a wrist injury. Despite being behind some other surefire Franchise Quarterbacks physically and talent-wise, Burrow compensates with his Marksman passing accuracy, excellent decision-making, ice-in-his-veins leadership, and clutch play. Burrow is not ranked #2 or #3 like in most lists because of his injuries and some vital statistical data I have compiled.
• In the second half of Super Bowl LVI, Joe Burrow led the Bengals to score a touchdown to open the half. However, in the six subsequent drives, the Bengals managed only one short-field goal, four punts, and one turnover on downs. This led to only 61 total yards gained in 31 downs, averaging under 2.0 yards per play. The Bengals’ offensive line did not make Burrow’s day easy, and Aaron Donald was particularly dominant, especially in the second half. Despite Burrow being recognized for winning with a “terrible” offensive line previously, I don’t believe he made enough plays to win the game.
• Another example of the media prematurely anointing Burrow as Mahomes’ biggest rival was his performance in the second half of the 2022 AFC Championship game against the Chiefs. After tying the game 20-20, Burrow threw a bad interception on 3rd and 3. The Bengals’ defense then forced a punt on the Chiefs’ next possession. With the ball at his own 35 and timeouts, Burrow could only manage a two-yard pass, an incomplete pass, and a sack. I’m being overcritical of Burrow, but it is hard to imagine him having more surefire success than those above him on this list due to his lack of elite physical talent. Nonetheless, I am a fan. Please use the statistical comparison above in Herbert’s section to compare as well.

#5. Lamar Jackson

• This ranking was extremely painful for me as Lamar Jackson is the most exciting quarterback we NFL fans get to see each week, and I make it a point to watch him whenever possible. He has won me money in Fantasy Football (First MVP year) and sports gambling (Bet Jackson MVP at Thanksgiving at +650 last year). Watching how Lamar became the Grinch who stole both Christmas and the MVP from the 49ers and Brock Purdy in week 16 last season was very satisfying. Jackson would have been ranked 3 or 4 on this list without his AFC Championship Game collapse, where he consistently had poor ball placement, unnecessarily panicked and left clean pockets, and made uncharacteristic decisions for a Two-Time MVP winner (Likely Interception into double coverage).
• This feels similar to the first half of Peyton Manning’s career: unlimited regular season success followed by poor performances in January, and in a similar fashion, Jackson has shown incredible regular season form but struggled in the playoffs. The hope is that this was a needed fork in the road for Jackson’s progress. The only other Nine NFL Quarterbacks in NFL History to win multiple MVPs are Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes. All nine other players have won a Super Bowl, and unfortunately, Lamar proved some of the doubters right, who are skeptical about whether his style of play can produce a Lombardi Trophy.  I do not believe Jackson will make history and be the first on this list not to win a Super Bowl. However, his play late in the year will need to change for this to happen. I fully expect Jackson to bounce back from his poor AFC Championship game performance, and the addition of Derrick Henry will significantly aid the Ravens. Henry’s presence will provide a robust rushing threat and open up opportunities for Jackson in the passing game. In 2019, Baltimore signed a 30-year-old Mark Ingram when was coming off a year in which he had less than 650 rushing yards and only six touchdowns for New Orleans. Ingram produced 1265 Scrimmage yards and 15 total touchdowns that season, even with MVP Lamar Jackson rushing for over 1200 yards and seven touchdowns of his own. Jackson hasn’t had another 1000-yard rushing season since 2020 (1005 yards) and hasn’t topped five rushing touchdowns since his seven rushing touchdowns in 2019 and 2020.
• Additionally, Gus Edwards and his 13 rushing touchdowns last season (Lamar Jackson Fantasy Vulture) are gone to Los Angeles, and the Ravens have averaged over 16 rushing touchdowns from the Running Back position since 2020. This will lead to Henry feasting as he was stuck on a one-dimensional rebuilding team in Tennessee last year and will significantly benefit from running against lighter boxes. In 2024, The Return of King Derrick Henry is one of the more straightforward predictions of the NFL offseason. It doesn’t have to be complicated; close your eyes and picture Heisman Trophy-winning, Two-Time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson sharing the same backfield with Heisman Trophy-winning Hall of Famer Derrick Henry. I can see the read options, zone options, or even triple options (Flowers) and Henry, making things much easier for Jackson. Imagine being a Defensive End momentarily, and you must choose between Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as a rushing threat; yikes. Hopefully, improved defensive health and growth from a young group of wide receivers (Zay Flowers will bounce back from his AFC Championship goal line fumble) will help Jackson rebound.