Tier 7: Quarterbacks With Hot Seats

#22. Geno Smith

• Geno Smith has managed to piece together two very competent seasons of quarterback play for Seattle in 2022 and 2023. When Smith signed a contract extension with the Seattle Seahawks after the 2022 season, critics viewed the move as a risk; however, Smith has now accomplished what nobody in my memory has ever done in the NFL: go from a first-round bust who broke a teammates jaw in the locker room over less than $1000, to a career backup, to finally becoming a competent starting quarterback in the NFL. Last year, Smith increased his big-time throw rate from 5.4% to 6% and subtracted his turnover-worthy play % from 4.2% to 3.5%, according to Pro Football Focus. Smith was forced to miss two games due to a groin injury in 2023 and was rumored to be playing through pain all season, so some of his total passing numbers could be much better.

• Further research into Smith reveals four distinct chapters in the past two NFL seasons. The first half of the 2022 season was great as Smith was the third highest-graded passer in the league; however, during the second half of the 2022 season, Smith led the league in turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus. Fast forwarding to the first half of last season, Smith had more turnover-worthy plays (13) than big-time throws (11), according to Pro Football Focus, but then from week ten forward, he finished in the top five in both passing grade and big-time throws. The biggest question facing Smith this season is which of the four Geno chapters we will be getting? A top 5-10 graded quarterback, or a quarterback who turns it over more than he makes big plays? Being 33 years old and entering the final year of his contract in which he has guaranteed money, Seattle does not view Smith as a long-term option. I’m sure Smith doesn’t mind the doubt as he resurrected his career in a rare fashion, and he is 100% the type of quarterback who can get a win on any given Sunday. 

#23. Russell Wilson

• Russell Wilson has had an extremely strange last two years that have made it near impossible to determine exactly who he is as an NFL quarterback and what he is capable of at this point in his career. Watching him multiple times last season, it is clear that he still employs his moonshot deep ball in his repertoire and can still hit his receiver deep in stride when the opportunities present themselves. Wilson has been considered one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL since he was drafted, and he has never been afraid to chuck it deep as he had a 10.2-yard average target depth and completed 48.4% of these deep throws in his rookie year. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson was rated top-five in the NFL in big-time throws when pressured and ranked as a top-10 quarterback in overall total big-time throws in 2023; however, Wilson still ranked only 21st in Pro Football Focus’s passing grade.

• Although his big-time throw rates over his two seasons in a Broncos uniform were in elite company among his NFL quarterback peers, these rates with the Broncos were the two of the three lowest rates that Wilson has ever recorded for a full season in his career. Wilson also used to thrive with a time-to-throw average above 3 seconds in Seattle, as he was highly elusive, giving him the crucial time to find potential deep shots. However, as he has aged and lost some of his athleticism, this has resulted in too many sacks. Wilson took over 100 sacks in his two years in Denver, which was the most in the NFL, and too many times, Wilson seemed to either fall down to avoid a hit or throw the ball away far too early. This points toward him losing some athleticism and unfortunately, he has not adjusted to his aging very well. I also would much prefer to see Justin Fields get an opportunity in Pittsburgh for fantasy reasons and rooting for Fields to immediately succeed after leaving Chicago. Full disclosure as a Packer fan: Seeing Russell Wilson struggle and, in turn, Seattle enter a rebuild gives the slightest revenge for the Packer’s 2014 NFC Championship game collapse in Seattle. Exactly what version of Russell Wilson will show up in Pittsburgh is one of the more giant wild cards of the entire 2024 NFL season; however, when he is at his best, it is avoiding pressure and pushing the ball down the field. 

#24. Derek Carr

• Last season for the New Orleans Saints, Dereck Carr passed for 25 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. According to Pro Football Focus however, he finished with only 17 big-time throws compared to 14 turnover-worthy plays, which was a significantly smaller ratio than his TD-INT. Dereck Carr has recorded a Pro Football Focus passing grade between 77.5 and 83.5 in four of the previous five seasons, and this illustrates that at this point in his career, what we are seeing with Carr is what we are going to get. During this same five-year timeframe, Carr has never had a turnover-worthy play rate above 3.3%, and while Carr is never going to be the guy who takes extreme risks, he has managed to hit on a big-time throw percentage of 6.7%.

• Ever since Carr broke his leg against Indianapolis in week 16 of 2016, Carr has left far too many potential big plays out on the field. Carr has rightfully earned a reputation of being overly quick to check it down to a running back as, again, according to Pro Football Focus, he has finished in the top 10 of NFL quarterback’s check-down % each of the last six seasons, however, Carr has ranked in the top 12 among quarterbacks in the same timeframe in 20-plus yard passes and an average depth of target (8.9 yards per target). These condescending averages illustrate what an eye test would tell you in that Carr employs the Jon Gruden mentality of “check down or touchdown,” if any of you readers were lucky enough to have Alvin Kamara in fantasy football, you would agree. Kamara has lost some explosiveness and overall ability; however, his fantasy scores did not suffer as Carr fed him 6.6 targets per game in his best 2019 Philip Rivers to Austin Ekeler impression, which was over a full target more per game than second place (Breece Hall finished second at 5.3 targets per game and who’s average targets per game was significantly skewed by 16 in week 16).

• The 6.6 targets per game turned into 75 catches on the 86 targets (the 6.6 per game) for only 466 yards in the 13 games Kamara played, which was an average of 6.2 yards per catch, for reference Emmitt Smith has the lowest yards per catch of all time at 6.3 yards per catch. Other than 2023 and an outlier 2019 with Drew Brees in his struggling to throw the ball downfield due to injury and age where Kamara averaged 6.6 yards per catch, his previous low in yards per catch was 8.6, nearly two and a half yards more than last season with Carr. However, Carr’s most fatal flaw continues to be that he is a horrible red-zone quarterback. In 2022, his last season with the Raiders, Carr finished dead out of 33 NFL quarterbacks who met the criteria to qualify in red zone passer rating at 74.6, which was the worst in the NFL since 2019. Carr managed to improve on this in 2023 slightly, however, he still finished in the bottom half of the league. Overall, these factors point to Carr being a frustrating player to watch due to what he seems capable of versus what he puts on tape and if New Orleans finds themselves out of the playoff hunt late in the season, Carr will be a prime candidate to get benched. 

#25. Gardner Minshew

• Gardner Minshew has spent time with three teams in his five NFL seasons and has developed a reputation for being a grinder who overcomes obstacles with his energetic and eccentric personality. Minshew was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars and finished with a 7-13 career record in his three seasons in Duvall, while producing solid numbers as their starting quarterback – he had over 5500 passing yards and a 37:11 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Minshew then signed with the Philadelphia Eagles to back up Jalen Hurts and, after a Super Bowl appearance as a backup, signed with the Indianapolis Colts in 2023. Minshew was initially unable to win the starting job over fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson; however, when Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in week 4, Minshew took over the starting quarterback duties.

• Last season, as the Colts starting quarterback, Minshew won seven games and nearly secured a very unexpected playoff berth for the Colts. He set career highs in passing yards, completions, and rushing touchdowns. Minshew was rewarded for these efforts by being named an alternate for the 2024 NFL Pro Bowl Games. Minshew signed with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason and is expected to be the Raiders starting quarterback week one in 2024 over the incumbent Aiden O’Connell. Both O’Connell and Minshew started multiple games last year, and according to Pro Football Focus, they finished 29th and 33rd last season in passing grade. Hopefully, Minshew will be able to make Davante Adams’s life a little bit better, and his personality meshes perfectly with that of coach Anthony Pierce. It would not be shocking to see the Raiders win a few games they have no business winning on paper, similar to when they beat Kansas City on Christmas last season. Minshew has perfect traits to become a long-term NFL backup or a potential bridge quarterback a la Ryan Fitzpatrick and he should be in the NFL for the next decade in some capacity. 

#26. Daniel Jones

• Daniel Jones had the lowest passer rating of the three quarterbacks who took snaps last year for the Giants behind Tommy DeVito and Tyrod Taylor and was only able play in six games. Jones has yet to crack seven yards per attempt in any of his five seasons as a starter for the New York Giants. Jones also has finished with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, according to Pro Football Focus, and he has been in the bottom 10 of the NFL in average depth of target in this same timeframe. While the Giants did upgrade their receiving group with the early selection of Malik Nabers, this is not nearly enough as Jones has always been a below-average starting quarterback in the NFL. Losing Saquon Barkley to the Eagles will also considerably strain Jones’s 2024 outlook and now after signing his contract extension in 2023, he is also a very costly one as well.

• Jones finds his most success when he can hit his first read with an efficient, quick passing game and when he uses his excellent athleticism to escape the pocket when in danger and in turn create rushing production. The fact that Jones is coming off an ACL tear makes me worry about how his athleticism will be affected and also if the injury will cause him to become more cautious with his body. Jones is scheduled to be a full participant in training camp and is expected to be the Giants’ starting quarterback in week 1 in 2024.  I am unable to see many scenarios where Jones is New York’s starting quarterback after 2024 or even after Thanksgiving this season. Jones could hang around in the NFL as an athletic backup with good size and draft pedigree (for some reason, it still matters to some GMs) and win a game or two in a pinch for an NFL Franchise. However, his future is as bleak as any quarterback in the entire NFL.