Tier 8: Rookie Quarterbacks

#27. Caleb Williams

• Caleb Williams is a 22-year-old, 6’1 215 lb. quarterback from USC. Williams began his collegiate career at Oklahoma before transferring to USC after his first year. In his first season at USC, Williams won the Heisman Trophy as he threw for over 4,500 yards and led the Trojans to a near playoff berth and ultimately finished at 11-3 overall. Last season, Williams and USC faltered to a 7-5 record, and Williams decided to declare for the 2024 NFL draft at the conclusion of 2023. Using an eye test, Williams has the natural components to be a real difference-making football player in year one. Talented pass catchers surround him and he is fortunate to be protected by what should be a decent offensive line group, which is very rare for a #1 overall pick to walk into. One question facing Williams is whether the superhero risky plays at USC were out of need due to a poor offensive line and skill players, or if this is who William is as a player. If Williams commits to playing in structure in Chicago, he could have a historic rookie year; however, if he continues to play backyard football too often, we may have to hear from Bears fans again that they want another new quarterback. Williams has natural arm talent that cannot be coached and is rarely replicated, and he displays it with almost every pass.
• Quarterbacks being able to “make every throw” is a cliche used when evaluating quarterbacks and rarely fits said prospect. In this case, Williams can make every throw, as he can produce exceptional velocity from various arm angles and throwing platforms, and it never turns off. Other quarterback prospects who thrive on making plays out of structure tend to suffer in the accuracy department (Manziel); however, this is not the case for Williams, and this sets him apart. He consistently places the ball in spots where only his receivers can make a play from nearly limitless throwing positions. In this modern era of quarterbacks who thrive scrambling out of the pocket and making plays out of structure, it is difficult to find a better prospect as I haven’t seen many signal-callers in the FBS, and very few in the NFL who are better than Williams at making pass rushers whiff while keeping his eyes downfield and maintaining his passing vision downfield. The comparisons between Patrick Mahomes and Williams are not hyperbole, as Mahomes is the best in the world at manipulating his pocket to allow himself room to either throw or take off and run, which is also an ability Williams displays in every snap.
• At times, this playmaking ability has its downfalls, as Williams relied far too often on his out-of-structure playability and “hero ball” to try to create positive plays for the Trojan offense last season. The “hero ball” strategy led to Williams missing some easy plays, and Williams also had 50 dropbacks with a time to throw off over six seconds in 2023, which led the FBS. This need to play out of structure has led to Williams developing bad habits, ultimately leading to poor decisions. Far too often in 2023, Williams dropbacks were square to the line of scrimmage, which in turn made it more difficult to get into a fundamental ideal throwing position. However, he did this to set up defenders and create new lanes in the pocket to run through. Williams also displayed too much carelessness when attempting to scramble, often carrying the football loose on his side like a loaf of bread, making it easier for opposing pass rushers to knock it out.
• I believe that a majority of these issues will naturally fix themselves because he no longer needs to constantly think about scrambling now that he is free of USC’s terrible 2023 offensive line. You would be hard-pressed to find a more talented quarterback prospect than Caleb Williams, and it is why he has been nearly unanimously projected to be the No. 1 overall pick for multiple years. Williams’s arm talent and football ability are unteachable. He is the prototypical modern-age quarterback who excels at scrambling and making things happen that do not seem possible while also displaying pure fundamentals working in the pocket and deciphering defenses. A perfect prospect does not exist, and the worries about Williams’s reliance on backyard football are real. Williams will need to learn to play on time and take what the defenses give him; however, his raw ability to make something out of nothing and create magic is why NFL executives and analysts project him to become a sure-fire franchise quarterback.

#28. Jayden Daniels

• Jayden Daniels is a 23-year-old 6’4 210 lb. quarterback who is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner from LSU. Daniels enters the NFL as the No. 2 overall pick and presumptive starter for the Commanders right out of the gate. Daniels’ dual-threat skills will allow him to have a very high floor from his first snap because of how much stress he can put onto defenses with the consistent threat of him picking up yards with his legs. Daniels started his college career at Arizona State and after two seasons as the Sun Devils starter in which he displayed great potential, he transferred to LSU to play for Coach Brian Kelly. In his first year as LSU’s starter in 2021, he showed tremendous improvement from his time at Arizona State, as he completed 69% of his passes for 2913 passing yards and 17 passing touchdowns against three interceptions while also running for 885 yards and 11 additional rushing touchdowns.
• This past season as a Senior in 2023, Daniels reached an entirely different level, completing 72% of his passes for 3812 passing yards and 40 touchdowns against four interceptions while also running for 1134 rushing yards and ten more rushing touchdowns and he was rewarded for these efforts with the Heisman Trophy. Daniels was blessed with two first-round wide receivers and a solid offensive line, however, a horrible defense kept LSU from any significant postseason success. This lack of defense led to LSU playing in many high-scoring affairs, with Daniels being forced to put the Tigers on his back and carry the team to wins.
• Overall, Daniels’s passing game is a work in progress, but he should be aided by having Kliff Kingsbury as his Offensive Coordinator. Daniels has decent accuracy compared to other starting quarterbacks in the NFL, but he sometimes misses some easy throws he is capable of making. Daniels has fantastic ball placement on his passes and is great at leading his intended target, allowing his receivers to pick up additional yards after the catch. He also has exceptional deep-ball accuracy, as the eye test shows that he can put excellent touch on the football, throws a very catchable ball, and more often than not he gets the football out on time. Daniels is exceptionally patient, sometimes even too patient, as he sometimes has an issue with holding on to the football too long which most college quarterbacks do.
• At times, Daniels struggled to anticipate receivers getting open, and he had to see his receivers get open before ultimately pulling the trigger. Head Coach Brian Kelly did a fantastic job of developing Daniels during their two years together. Daniels has shown legitimate improvement in his fundamentals as a pocket passer, getting through his progressions and getting the ball out to the correct receiver. Daniels is also very aggressive as he challenges defenses downfield while displaying his prominent scrambling ability, and he does a great job of avoiding interceptions and protecting the football. As a runner, Daniels displays excellent ball security, which is a huge asset for him entering the NFL, and he is super elusive in the open field, where he will dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge defenders like a Diet Lamar Jackson. Daniels also has a robust physical build that allows him to take hits; however, he will need to learn how and when to slide in the NFL, as he was far too liberal with his body, finishing runs last year at LSU to minimize his injury risk. I am very intrigued to see how Daniels performs next season, and I will be targeting him heavily in fantasy football due to his rushing ability.
  

#29. JJ McCarthy

• JJ McCarthy is a 21-year-old 6’3 205 lb. quarterback who played his college career at Michigan and won the starting quarterback job for the Wolverines in 2022, where he led Michigan to a Big Ten Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance. Last season in 2023, he guided Michigan to a 15-0 season that culminated in a College Football National Championship. McCarthy’s calling card is his ability and willingness to make throws over the middle of the field, a highly transferable skill to bring to the NFL. Due to Michigan’s overall dominance, McCarthy didn’t log as many drop backs or attempts as some of his other peers in the 2024 NFL Draft; however, he was able to attempt just under 100 throws between the hashes last season at Michigan.
• According to PFF, McCarthy had a 91.2 passing grade with an 86% adjusted completion percentage on these throws, which was good for top 10 among FBS quarterbacks. McCarthy’s pocket movement and awareness aid his ability to attack between the hashes, as he has shown that knows how to create throwing lanes for himself. He also made significant improvements in his footwork and staying in the pocket during his two years starting at Michigan. McCarthy is also capable of making plays when things break down as he is a solid athlete and was even used on designed runs at Michigan; his performance in the National Championship game reminded me of Brock Purdy’s second half in the NFC Championship game against Detroit where Purdy used his legs to aid the 49ers comeback.
• I have watched a good number of Michigan games in the last two years, and the biggest concern for McCarthy is when he is asked to throw outside the numbers. In 2023, when asked to make these higher degrees of difficulty throws, he ranked 50th out of over 100 eligible FBS quarterbacks with a 27% uncatchable rate. His uncatchable rate on all other passes is under 11%, which was both top 5 in the FBS, an extreme gap rooted in poor footwork. At times, McCarthy overstrides or chops his feet on the outside throws; however, this could be cleaned up in the NFL with good coaching. Another concern about McCarthy is his ability to get through his progressions and getting past his first read. While watching his games last year, when McCarthy had his first read open, he rarely hesitated and hit his passing windows. However, when his first read is not open, he tends stares down the receiver and is reluctant to get to his other progressions. This sometimes leads to him forcing throws, and this is where the great majority of his turnover-worthy passes came from.
• McCarthy is very young and far from a finished product, and he brings a high floor of being successful at throwing over the middle of the field combined with being a good athlete with a winning mentality. He reminds me a lot of Brock Purdy in that he is best at using play-action and attacking between the hashes. McCarthy will also benefit significantly from throwing to a highly talented group of pass catchers in Minnesota with an excellent offensive Head Coach, and time will tell if he can take full advantage of his opportunity and become a franchise quarterback in Minnesota.
  

#30. Drake Maye

• Drake Maye is a 21-year-old 6’4, 230 lb. quarterback from the University of North Carolina who took over as the starter for the Tar Heels in 2022 after Washington drafted Sam Howell. In 2022, Maye led UNC to a 9-5 record, including an appearance in the ACC Championship game. Last season in 2023, Maye led the Tar Heels to an 8-4 record and he decided to declare for the NFL draft at the conclusion of the season.
• Maye has an elite arm, which helps him get the football to his intended targets even when he isn’t in natural throwing positions. Maye also has the raw arm strength to throw the ball both extremely far and the velocity to fit the football into tiny, tight windows. Like JJ McCarthy, Maye has an elite ability to operate in the middle of the field between the hashes as, according to Pro Football Focus, he had a 94.8 passing grade when throwing over the middle, leading the entire FBS with more than 50 attempts. Maye is on time with his progressions and is aware of holding underneath defenders with his eyes while snapping and throwing the ball right past them with solid anticipation. Maye is also an outstanding athlete and can succeed when the play breaks down; however, he does not rely on it.
• At times, Maye must make better decisions when facing pressure, leading to easily avoidable turnover-worthy plays. Another issue that pops up when watching Maye is his accuracy, as he had a 75% adjusted completion percentage last season, which ranked 25th in the FBS. A few times while watching him last season, he had throws sail high on him due to poor footwork, while at the time, he had shown the ability to make very difficult off-platform throws with pinpoint accuracy. This poor footwork sometimes leads to inconsistency on easy throws and far too many instances of him missing simple throws from clean pockets. Maye also struggles with pressure at times, as he had a 19.6% pressure-to-sack rate last year, which is a bit higher than what the best quarterbacks in the NFL sit at a 10-15% pressure-to-sack rate.
• Dealing with pressure will be a crucial area for Maye to improve upon to be a successful starting NFL quarterback, as there are many instances on film of him questioningly deciding to scramble into the pressure, leading to avoidable sacks. Overall, there is a ton to like about Drake Maye’s potential ceiling as an NFL starting quarterback, however he will need to improve his mechanics and decision-making to reach it.
  

#31. Bo Nix

•  Bo Nix is a 6’2, 220 lb. 24-year-old quarterback who spent the first three years of his college career at Auburn, starting as a true freshman before transferring to the University of Oregon for his final two collegiate years. Nix guided the Ducks to consecutive double-digit winning seasons and finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting last season. As both a competitor and physically, Nix has the essential components to become a starting NFL quarterback. Nix is more experienced than the other quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round, playing 61 games in college.
• Playing 61 football games in the SEC and PAC-12 without any significant durability issues is impressive. On the surface, Nix’s passer rating of 188.3 at Oregon last season is extremely impressive, however this was aided by the fact that Oregon attempted over 200 screen passes and RPOs in 2023, which accounted for over 40% of his passing attempts. This led to Nix’s average target depth being 6.8 yards per pass, which was by far the lowest in the 2024 NFL Draft Class. This is very concerning as it raises whether Nix can process at an elite level or was just not asked to do it much at Oregon. In the limited number of times Nix was asked to throw deep, he was reasonably effective; however, when he was required to put some extra mustard on a throw and fit it in a tight window, he struggled.
• Nix’s limited arm talent will require him to be nearly perfect on every throw at the next level, as he will not be able to get away with being late or throwing behind a potential receiver in the same way as someone like a Josh Allen or Justin Herbert can. These elite arm talent quarterbacks can get away with this because their extra velocity allows the ball to fit into tighter windows. Nix struggled when asked to throw from each hash to the opposite side of the field as his lower velocity throws allowed defenders to jump routes more quickly and make plays on the ball. This also limited his receiver’s yards after catch opportunities as they would get immediately tackled after catching the ball. Bo Nix brings extensive experience; however, questions of how much higher his ceiling is with both his lack of elite arm talent and older age.
• Some areas where he performed well will translate to the NFL, as he was very successful at avoiding negative plays and displayed great short-passing accuracy, giving him a relatively high floor as a decent backup quarterback option. Compared to the other quarterbacks on this list, Nix has no elite passing trait you can pick out, and he has a limited ceiling, which makes it challenging to explain spending valuable draft capital on him.