Tier 1: Mount Mahomes

#1. Patrick Mahomes

We won’t beat around the bush here – this ranking is as straightforward as it gets. Patrick Mahomes is currently the best quarterback in the NFL and may very well be the best ever. He possesses a combination of the best traits of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, along with remarkable elusiveness when scrambling. His ability to escape trouble with just a bit more speed than his pursuers, his tendency to scramble more in adverse weather conditions, and his knack for winning by slim margins are just a few aspects of what makes him exceptional.
While he initially caught everyone’s attention with his incredible arm talent and record-breaking passes to Tyreek Hill, Mahomes’ most impressive attribute is his methodical approach. At this stage in his career, he’s unafraid to take what the defense gives him and has adapted to become a methodical quarterback, resembling the leader of the recent dynasty in Massachusetts. Comparing Mahomes to the likes of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers with a touch of Tom Brady might seem far-fetched, but is it really? He is the present and enduring standard for quarterbacks in the NFL, showcasing his strategic prowess for winning football games every single time in which he plays.

Tier 2: Elite Quarterbacks Not Named Patrick Mahomes

#2. Josh Allen

Josh Allen is one of the most entertaining watches in the entire NFL. Allen is a true unicorn of athletic gifts for the quarterback position because of his size, speed, and strength. He reminds me of a combination of Ben Rothlisberger and Cam Newton in the sense that he has Rothlisberger’s ability to extend plays and Newton’s physicality. No NFL player can stay on his feet while taking extreme punishment like Josh Allen. A lot of this punishment is avoidable, and you would hope that as Allen ages, he will become more intelligent with his body. However, this brings us back to him being a 6’6, 250 lb. beast who tries to hurdle or truck every defender in his way; more often than not, Allen is the one who delivers the punishment in his collisions with defenders. He is going to make some mistakes, some of them very head-scratching. However, his ceiling is as high as possible for the position, and he shows it every week, driving and playing.
From a pure eye test perspective, Allen has the strongest arm in the NFL today and possibly the strongest in NFL history. Allen has averaged just over 600 yards rushing and under nine rushing touchdowns per season, averaging nearly 4,400 yards passing, 34 passing touchdowns, and 14 interceptions since 2020. When he first entered the league, Allen was considered a raw prospect, meaning he had the physical tools but needed time to develop his skills. So, Allen has been averaging well over 300 yards of total offense per game for half a decade with a suspect running game and questionable coaching decisions. Everyone says, “Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda,” but the Bills should have beaten the Chiefs in both 2021 and last year in 2023. Allen is way too talented not to raise a Lombardi Trophy at some point in his career, and he will get it done for the great fans of Buffalo. (They deserve it).

#3. Justin Herbert

One of the more controversial rankings I know. I recommend anyone who disagrees watch Herbert’s tape at Lambeau against Green Bay in 2023. It was one of the worst WR group performances in recent memory, and you almost started feeling bad for the guy. Coach Jim Harbaugh said in June: “The conditioning test was another eye-opener,” Harbaugh told reporters Tuesday. “He smashed the conditioning test last Thursday. I mean, he crushed it. In front of people, he is trying to keep up with himself. The athleticism and strength here? He could play tight end. He could play edge rusher here. The arm talent is even better than advertised.” I agree with Coach Harbaugh.
With the crazy circumstances surrounding his debut against Kansas City in 2020 and how well he performed, Herbert most definitely passes the eye test. In 2020, I was unfamiliar with Herbert and did not believe he would be a franchise quarterback. However, he nearly won his debut against Patrick Mahomes with just a few minutes notice that he would even be playing! I am very excited and hopeful to see how Herbert progresses now under Harbaugh’s coaching and to see the front office make some better personnel decisions. Herbert has been a record-breaking quarterback from the start, and listed below are a few of the highlights. Also listed is a career statistical comparison between Herbert and the #4 ranked QB on the list.
Justin Herbert records: 1. Passing Yards=Justin Herbert surpassed Andrew Luck’s record for the most passing yards by an NFL quarterback in their first two seasons. 2. Total Touchdowns=Justin Herbert broke Dan Marino’s record for the most total touchdowns in an NFL quarterback’s first two seasons. 3. Franchise Records: Herbert set franchise records in his second season with 5,014 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.

#4. Joe Burrow

Burrow was unable to stay fully healthy during the 2023 NFL season. He started the year with a calf injury that he seemed to have been rushed back from too quickly in the preseason, and then his season officially ended with a wrist injury. Despite being behind some other surefire Franchise Quarterbacks physically and talent-wise, Burrow compensates with his Marksman passing accuracy, excellent decision-making, ice-in-his-veins leadership, and clutch play. Burrow is not ranked #2 or #3 like in most lists because of his injuries and some vital statistical data I have compiled.
In the second half of Super Bowl LVI, Joe Burrow led the Bengals to score a touchdown to open the half. However, in the six subsequent drives, the Bengals managed only one short-field goal, four punts, and one turnover on downs. This led to only 61 total yards gained in 31 downs, averaging under 2.0 yards per play. The Bengals’ offensive line did not make Burrow’s day easy, and Aaron Donald was particularly dominant, especially in the second half. Despite Burrow being recognized for winning with a “terrible” offensive line previously, I don’t believe he made enough plays to win the game.
Another example of the media prematurely anointing Burrow as Mahomes’ biggest rival was his performance in the second half of the 2022 AFC Championship game against the Chiefs. After tying the game 20-20, Burrow threw a bad interception on 3rd and 3. The Bengals’ defense then forced a punt on the Chiefs’ next possession. With the ball at his own 35 and timeouts, Burrow could only manage a two-yard pass, an incomplete pass, and a sack. I’m being overcritical of Burrow, but it is hard to imagine him having more surefire success than those above him on this list due to his lack of elite physical talent. Nonetheless, I am a fan. Please use the statistical comparison above in Herbert’s section to compare as well.

#5. Lamar Jackson

This ranking was extremely painful for me as Lamar Jackson is the most exciting quarterback we NFL fans get to see each week, and I make it a point to watch him whenever possible. He has won me money in Fantasy Football (First MVP year) and sports gambling (Bet Jackson MVP at Thanksgiving at +650 last year). Watching how Lamar became the Grinch who stole both Christmas and the MVP from the 49ers and Brock Purdy in week 16 last season was very satisfying. Jackson would have been ranked 3 or 4 on this list without his AFC Championship Game collapse, where he consistently had poor ball placement, unnecessarily panicked and left clean pockets, and made uncharacteristic decisions for a Two-Time MVP winner (Likely Interception into double coverage).
This feels similar to the first half of Peyton Manning’s career: unlimited regular season success followed by poor performances in January, and in a similar fashion, Jackson has shown incredible regular season form but struggled in the playoffs. The hope is that this was a needed fork in the road for Jackson’s progress. The only other Nine NFL Quarterbacks in NFL History to win multiple MVPs are Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes. All nine other players have won a Super Bowl, and unfortunately, Lamar proved some of the doubters right, who are skeptical about whether his style of play can produce a Lombardi Trophy. I do not believe Jackson will make history and be the first on this list not to win a Super Bowl. However, his play late in the year will need to change for this to happen. I fully expect Jackson to bounce back from his poor AFC Championship game performance, and the addition of Derrick Henry will significantly aid the Ravens. Henry’s presence will provide a robust rushing threat and open up opportunities for Jackson in the passing game. In 2019, Baltimore signed a 30-year-old Mark Ingram when was coming off a year in which he had less than 650 rushing yards and only six touchdowns for New Orleans. Ingram produced 1265 Scrimmage yards and 15 total touchdowns that season, even with MVP Lamar Jackson rushing for over 1200 yards and seven touchdowns of his own. Jackson hasn’t had another 1000-yard rushing season since 2020 (1005 yards) and hasn’t topped five rushing touchdowns since his seven rushing touchdowns in 2019 and 2020.
Additionally, Gus Edwards and his 13 rushing touchdowns last season (Lamar Jackson Fantasy Vulture) are gone to Los Angeles, and the Ravens have averaged over 16 rushing touchdowns from the Running Back position since 2020. This will lead to Henry feasting as he was stuck on a one-dimensional rebuilding team in Tennessee last year and will significantly benefit from running against lighter boxes. In 2024, The Return of King Derrick Henry is one of the more straightforward predictions of the NFL offseason. It doesn’t have to be complicated; close your eyes and picture Heisman Trophy-winning, Two-Time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson sharing the same backfield with Heisman Trophy-winning Hall of Famer Derrick Henry. I can see the read options, zone options, or even triple options (Flowers) and Henry, making things much easier for Jackson. Imagine being a Defensive End momentarily, and you must choose between Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as a rushing threat; yikes. Hopefully, improved defensive health and growth from a young group of wide receivers (Zay Flowers will bounce back from his AFC Championship goal line fumble) will help Jackson rebound.

Tier 3: The Rule of 2, Apprentice Becomes Master

#6. Jordan Love

In 2023, Jordan Love had a successful season, throwing for 4,159 yards, 32 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He ranked 5th in the NFL in passing efficiency and 9th in QBR. The Green Bay Packers finished the season with a 9-8 record and became the first 7th seed in NFL history to win a playoff game by defeating the Cowboys in Dallas. However, their season ended with a loss to the eventual NFC champion, the 49ers, in the divisional round.
The Packers believe they are strong contenders for the Super Bowl. Love’s young supporting cast has gained more experience, and their head coach, Matt LaFleur, is one of the best offensive coaches in the league. The addition of running back Josh Jacobs and the subsequent departure of Aaron Jones is expected to strengthen the team. After overcoming a hamstring issue that forced him to miss 9 games in 2023, Christian Watson’s return to the lineup will also benefit Love and the team’s performance. The Packers expect Love to sign a long-term contract extension and become one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, although this financial commitment will have a lesser impact on the team’s roster building due to their favorable salary cap position. The team’s general manager, Brian Gutekunst, has done an excellent job assembling a young and talented supporting cast with significant potential to grow alongside 25-year-old Jordan Love. This supporting cast includes wide receivers Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed, as well as tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.
The upcoming season presents an opportunity for Love to establish himself as a top quarterback and lead the NFL’s youngest offense. The competitiveness within the NFC North, which now includes strong teams like the Detroit Lions and the rebuilding Chicago Bears with top pick Caleb Williams, will be a significant challenge for the Packers, and Love eagerly hopes to continue Aaron Rodgers’s reign of The King of the North. The team aims to prove that their strong performance in the latter half of the previous season and their successful playoff run were not flukes. With the transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers and now to Love, the Packers hope for continued success.
*Listed below are Jordan Love’s cumulative stats over the last 10 games of the 2023 season compared to the previous 10 games of Aaron Rodgers’s last two MVP seasons.

#7. Aaron Rodgers

This ranking was quite challenging for me, given that I’m still unsure how Aaron Rodgers will perform in 2024 after recovering from a torn Achilles suffered in 2023. On the one hand, Rodgers won the MVP in 2020 and 2021, and after a final injury-plagued 2022 season in Green Bay followed by the 2023 Achilles, as mentioned above injury, the thought is if he’s healthy in 2024, he’ll most likely be a top-10 quarterback. On the other hand, Rodgers had a mediocre or even below-average performance for Green Bay in 2022 (hand injury). He’s over 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles, one of the more challenging recoveries in all sports. However, out of respect for his career, he should still be ranked highly until proven otherwise. The New York Jets, a team that has been rebuilding in recent years, are pinning their hopes on a healthy return from Rodgers and have made several additions for the 2024 season, including strengthening the offensive line by signing veteran players and drafting new talent. They’ve also signed wide receiver Mike Williams. These moves should make life easier for Rodgers, which is crucial because the Jets’ success in 2024 largely depends on his performance.
The Jets have a solid offensive lineup with talented players, including Breece Hall, wide receivers Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Malachi Corley, and running back Braelon Allen. The team also boasts an experienced offensive line featuring veterans Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, and John Simpson, which adds depth and talent to the lineup. However, all of this depends on Rodgers returning to an elite level of play in 2024.
Many NFL fans and media are underestimating Aaron Rodgers. History has shown that this can be a mistake, as he usually bounces back and proves himself with legendary performances, frequently paired with a quote such as “Relax” or “Run the Table.” Time will tell whether the final chapter of Rodgers’s career will be positive or negative, but I’m rooting for him this season.

Tier 4: Existing, Entering, or Exiting the Circle of Trust

#8. Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford threw for 3,965 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2023 his age 35 season. Stafford finished with a passing grade of 84, which was 7th in the NFL, as well as 32 big-time throws (5th), and he also recorded the NFL’s 2nd lowest turnover-worthy play rate at 2.1%. Abigail van Buren says, “It’s true; some wins improve with age. But only if the grapes were good in the first place.” This rings true with Stafford, as he has always had the gift of one of the strongest arms in the NFL, and even if this talent is shrinking slightly, he can more than makeup for it with his craftiness, creativity, and accumulated wisdom. The Rams’ offense struggled heavily with production, particularly in the first half of the season due to a combination of factors such as injuries, lack of chemistry among the players, and adjustments to a new system.
They only started to hit on all cylinders after the bye week. This bye week was a sign that the offense was beginning to come together as Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were both on the field, and the running game Kyren Williams led was highly influential in finishing the 2023 season strong. On paper, having high expectations for a 35+-year-old quarterback is not a recipe for success (see the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers last season), as a potential injury to an aging quarterback can deeply expose roster construction flaws. Stafford is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFC entering the 2023 season; however, he has shown that he was something left in the tank. Suppose the Rams are successful and return to the playoffs in 2024. In that case, Matthew Stafford will be the driving force of why; however, if they fail to live up to these high standards, declining quarterback play or injuries to their quarterback will be the main reason why the Rams do not meet expectations. Despite these challenges, the potential of the Rams’ future success is a beacon of hope for the team and its fans.
Tier Label: Existing in the Circle of Trust.

#9. CJ Stroud

In 2023, CJ Stroud threw for 4,108 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. These numbers were in the top half of the NFL, and Stroud also displayed multiple clutch moments and drives that were well beyond the normal expectations of a rookie quarterback. Stroud also was able to log the 3rd most 20+ yard completions while having the lowest turnover-worthy throw rate on these deep passes in the entire NFL. This is scarce territory for a rookie NFL quarterback and is a critical factor in why Stroud has cracked the top 10 after just one season in the NFL.
Stroud had to answer countless questions about a cognition test and his poor results for weeks leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, and quickly, the same people asking the same questions repeatedly were tranquil. The eye test will always be a far better judge of talent than a paper test. As a rookie, Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio, which made himself, Tom Brady, and Joe Montana the only three quarterbacks to accomplish this in the same season. The Texans ultimately won a home playoff game against the Browns and then subsequently lost to the Ravens in Baltimore in the divisional round. Since the playoff loss to the Ravens, the Texans have made several key additions: trading for Stephon Diggs and Pro Bowl defensive end Danielle Hunter, signing linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, and running back Joe Mixon. Adding Diggs and Mixon to the Texans’ 2024 offensive calculus increases the probability that Stroud will have a better and more productive season, as he gained invaluable experience as a rookie quarterback. Despite an awkward exit from Buffalo, Diggs is still extremely explosive and an elite route-runner who has recorded four straight 100 catch 1000-yard seasons in a row.
I believe that Stroud will become even more aggressive and will push the ball downfield at an even higher rate in 2024, as he was quoted as saying, “I really can say just like owning the offense more, the operation, putting more on my plate with run checks, protection checks things like that,” Stroud explains, “I want to definitely attack down the field more this year, and press guys back and also take what the defense gives me. If it’s boring, if it’s a boring play, just stay with the boring stuff and be efficient with that. So, those are all things I can improve, and I hope to do that.” These quotes are exactly what any Texans fan would want to hear, as Stroud’s maturation and work ethic are significant factors for the entire Houston organization. The Houston Texans have had their quarterback of both the present and the future for a decade-plus years.
Tier Label: Entering the Circle of Trust

#10. Trevor Lawerence

Trevor Lawerence threw for 4016 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 2023. Following the 2023 season, the Jaguars gave him a new $275 million contract extension to make him one of the highest-paid players in NFL history. Lawrence had an incredibly rough rookie year in 2021 with Urban Meyer and essentially had a fresh start under Doug Pederson in 2022 and 2023. During these past two seasons, Lawerence has thrown for 8,129 passing yards, 46 passing touchdowns against 22 interceptions, and completed 66% of his passes in this timeframe. The Jaguars, in turn, have had their first consecutive winning seasons since 2005. Urban Meyer’s failure had a huge impact on Lawerence’s development. However, the Jaguars organization fully believes in him, and after two seasons with a competent coaching staff, the Jaguars think he will only continue to improve.
In the offseason, Coach Pederson said, “He’s engaging and giving us ideas. Now he’s giving us suggestions and ideas and really becoming another coach, a set of eyes on the field. That’s just his growth; that is his development as a quarterback and not changing a lot schematically.” Just watching Lawerence play, I see that he has always shown flashes of brilliance, and I believe he will become a far more consistent quarterback this season and show everyone what he is capable of. Last season, Lawerence ranked in the top five in big-time throws with 33. However, he also finished with 24 turnover-worthy plays, which resulted in 21 turnovers. Pederson believes that Lawerence has taken the next step and will translate it into the field into wins and losses and better td/int and big-time-throw to turnover-worthy play ratios in 2024. The Jaguars also were active in free agency on the defensive side of the ball while signing wide receiver Gabe Davis from the Bills and drafting LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The Jaguars put a ton of faith in Lawerence by giving him the 275 million dollar extension, and time will tell if it was the right move. (It was, trust your eyes with Lawerence; the stats are coming soon).
Tier Label: Entering the Circle of Trust

#11. Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts had a very up-and-down season in 2023, as he set career marks in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and big-time throws, and setting career highs in interceptions and fumbles. He also managed to record his third straight year of double-digit rushing touchdowns while leading NFL quarterbacks in rushing first downs. Simply observing Eagles games made it apparent that Hurts was not fully healthy during 2023, as he was not as much of a rushing threat as he had been in previous years. In 2023, the Eagles started the season 10-1; however, they finished the season with a disappointing playoff loss to Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. During the final six games after that 10-1 start, Hurts only completed 61% of his passes for only 1,161 passing yards and five passing touchdowns against five interceptions. He was also sacked seven times during this time frame, and the Eagles almost appeared to give up.
A critical factor in Hurt’s regression from 2022 to 2023 is that 2022 play caller Shane Steichen left to become the Head Coach of the Indianapolis Colts. Overall, Hurts doubled his turnover numbers from 2022 to 2023 and declined nearly a full yard per pass attempt. The addition of Coordinator Kellen Moore should breathe life into Hurt’s 2024 outlook, and there is a much better chance that NFL fans will witness a 2024 iteration of Hurts closer to 2022. Dak Prescott produced some of his best NFL seasons with Moore as his play-caller in 2019-2022, and the addition of Saquon Barkley should significantly impact the Eagles 2024 offense. Although the retirement of Jason Kelce will undoubtedly affect their success, Philadelphia is expected to field one of the more robust offensive line units in the NFL, which will help both Hurts and Barkley have a much better chance to make it through 2024 healthy. Jalen Hurts has one of the more fluid rankings on this list, and I am very excited to see what version of Hurts 2024 will bring.
Tier Label: Exiting the Circle of Trust

#12. Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott finished the 2023 season with 4,516 Passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Prescott finished the 2023 regular season with a passing grade of 89.8, which was just barely behind Tua Tagovailoa’s league-leading mark of 89.9, and he led the entire NFL in passing grade while under pressure, finishing with a 73.5 passing grade (According to Pro Football Focus). Prescott also accumulated 37 big-time throws in 2023, which easily led the NFL while having a 2.0% turnover-worthy play rate, leading the entire NFL among quarterbacks with 400 or more dropbacks. These numbers make it nearly impossible to dispute that Dak Prescott is a top-10 NFL quarterback. However, Prescott faces doubters around the NFL. Two anonymous NFL executives anonymously admitted what the majority of NFL decision-makers feel about Prescott, he is an always great regular season quarterback, but these great stats are a red herring, which distracts from the ultimate fact that Prescott is not and never has been the kind of elite difference-making quarterback that can put a team on his back and carry it.
“He always does well enough to be in the top 10 but never gets over the hump,” an NFC executive told ESPN, “He makes all the throws, he’s playing the position at a high level, but something is missing, certain guys are going to elevate their team late in the game, and Dak doesn’t seem to do that.” Another NFL executive said, “He’s lacking that high-end ceiling. Plays the position really well but is not the elite athlete and passer that Mahomes and Allen are. They need to support him in those big matchups. He’s excellent but not good enough to elevate the entire team in those matchups.” The eye test certainly backs up these quotes, and the fact that Dallas was inactive in free agency does not help Prescott’s 2024 outlook. It was very tough for Prescott that his final game (playoff loss to Packers) was such a disaster, since before then, his 2023 season was a career year. Overall, Prescott was very efficient, aggressive, and accurate in 2023; however, as always, his play asks, “Can he win a Super Bowl for the Cowboys?” and the answer is trending further and further to becoming a resounding no.
Tier Label: Exiting the Circle of Trust

#13. Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray tore his ACL in November of the 2022 season, and he returned to action in Week 10 in 2023 to play eight games for the Arizona Cardinals. In these eight games, Murray recorded 1,799 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and five interceptions for a 17-game season pace of around 3800 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. In 2021, Murray had an MVP-caliber season, recording 43 big-time throws against only 14 turnover-worthy plays. However, his play in the 2022 season before his November ACL tear was an extreme step back. Exactly which version of Murray NFL fans will see in 2024 is a big question. All accounts from Arizona say that Murray had a great offseason as new free agent running back Michael Carter said, “The more I’ve gotten to know him, I don’t think he ever leaves the facility; I’m in the building now; I don’t think he leaves here. I don’t know. He’s always here. He’s the freakin first person in. I’m sure he’s the last person out.”
Carter also went on to explain, “I know for a fact he’s probably the last person out because there’s sometimes when I try to be the first person in. Last week, one time, I was like, ‘You know what? Let me just try to be the first person in.’ I think we had a meeting at 9:15. I think I might’ve got here at like 7:15, maybe. That two hours, you know? That Lambo (Murray’s car) already here… he’s always in the building, a lot of credit to him.” Carter also explains that he sees him constantly grinding, which sets a great example as a team leader and ultimately inspires his teammates to work harder. If these reports are accurate, this would be an incredible new progression in Murray’s career, as in the past, he has been criticized for his overall love of the game, and people have joked that he would rather play Call of Duty (Call of Duty Kyler).
Murray also posted on Instagram, “Bet the over.” about the total win odds of the Arizona Cardinals for the 2024 NFL season. Most sportsbooks have the over/under for Arizona’s win total in 2024 at 6.5 wins (this is also one of my best bets of the NFL year and will expand on in my NFL betting article). With the addition of superstar rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison paired with year two under Coach Gannon (Arizona is building a great culture which led to multiple upset wins, won $ on Pittsburgh), Murray should be able to move up next year’s edition of this list.
Tier Label: Exited Circle of Trust in 2023, Should be Reentering to Circle of Trust in 2023.

Tier 5: “Is he a System QB?” OR “Is he the System?”

#14. Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy was one of my most complex rankings on this list. Purdy has had very consistent statistical success over the past two seasons. Although this success comes with the fact that he is fortunate to have the most talented offensive skill position groups in the NFL, it is still worth highlighting. Brock has accumulated some great statistics in his two seasons in the NFL, and 2023 was his first season as a full-time starter. Purdy threw for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdown passes against only 11 interceptions while quarterbacking the San Francisco 49ers to an overtime Super Bowl loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Purdy had a 78.3 % adjusted completion rate in 2023, which ranked top five in the NFL while having a 5.4% big-time throw %, which both show that he has excellent timing and accuracy while also being able to anticipate some potential ample play opportunities and make things happen. Purdy is a much more confident player than the average NFL fan realizes and is not afraid to take chances with his elite weapons on the outside.
I will fully admit to being one of Purdy’s harsher critics over his time in the NFL. However, how he rallied San Francisco in the NFC Championship game was extremely impressive, as he utilized his legs to gain a few crucial first downs. Ultimately, Purdy was able to make a few plays that Jared Goff was unable to, and this is the main reason I have Purdy ahead of Goff in my rankings. The main reason Purdy is not higher on my list is because of the simple fact that I believe all of the quarterbacks ranked ahead of him would perform better than Purdy in San Francisco, and I think if Purdy were to switch spots with any of these QB’s his stats would suffer. However, it is not Brock Purdy’s fault he was gifted a great quarterback situation, and he has taken full advantage.
Tier Label: System QB showing flashes of becoming the system.

#15. Jared Goff

In 2023, Jared Goff had 4,575 passing yards (2nd), 30 passing touchdowns (4th), and finished in the top 10 in both passer rating and QBR. Goff also recorded an 85.2 passing grade, a 3.4% big-time throw percentage, and a 2.4 % turnover-worthy play rate, all career bests. These statistics back up Goff’s reputation as an efficient quarterback who takes what NFL defenses give him. Detroit’s front office has done a great job accumulating elite talent at skill positions and has built one of the best offensive lines in the NFL to protect Goff. During Goff’s time as the Lions starting quarterback, he leads the NFL in 4th quarter and overtime OBR at 72, while in the red zone he threw 18 touchdowns against 0 interceptions in 2023 which was by far the league’s best number. According to the ESPN quarterback rankings, Goff is also accumulating respect from his peers for his ability and overall toughness to find his receivers in tight windows; as an NFL coordinator told ESPN, “He’s the best in the NFL at throwing into zone coverage windows, I’ve shown young quarterbacks’ tape of him and how he throws with anticipation.”
The main reasons Goff is ranked in the middle of the pack are the 2023 NFC Championship game and the fact that the Rams immediately won a Super Bowl in the first year after trading Goff. First, the Lions had a 17-point lead going into halftime against the 49ers. However, a lethal combination of mistakes, bad tackling, and questionable coaching calls led the 49ers to come back and score 27 unanswered points on the way to the 34-31 victory. While Goff was not the primary catalyst behind this collapse, as the quarterback, he had the most significant opportunity to make one or two plays that would have sealed the game for Detroit. While watching this game, it was clear that Purdy could avoid the pressure and use his legs just enough to give the defense a different look, while Goff kept his play style the same. I believe Goff cannot adjust his game too much, as when things are good, Goff is great; however, when things break down and he faces pressure, things tend to go wrong. Goff receiving such a large contract will be a significant factor in Detroit taking a step back in the coming years, as he is not elite enough to get paid over 50 million a year.
Tier Label: System QB who can elevate teammates slightly due to the power of friendship.

#16. Kirk Cousins

This was another extremely challenging ranking for me, as Kirk Cousins has been one of the more consistent NFL quarterbacks over the previous six seasons. According to Pro Football Focus, Kirk has not posted any seasons graded below 80 during the past six seasons. However, his play in 2023 showed flashes of regression. Cousins could only play in eight games in 2023 due to a torn Achilles; however, before the season-ending injury, he was on pace for the lowest big-time throw rate in his career by far. Cousins also was on pace for the lowest turnover-worthy throw rate of his career while having a career-high adjusted completion % and a career-low average depth of target. These all point to Kirk being a bit more cautious last season, which backs up the eye test.
Going into the 2024 NFL season, Cousins is now 36 years old and coming off the Achilles tear while joining a new team in Atlanta that is very talented at the skill position spots. Cousins will be fortunate to throw to the likes of Drake London and Kyle Pitts while leaning on Sophomore Superstar Running Back Bijan Robinson a la Dalvin Cook during Cousins’s time in Minnesota. The Falcons also questionably decided to draft quarterback Micheal Penix Jr in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, which adds unneeded pressure to Cousin’s situation. Kirk Cousins has been highly efficient throughout his career and will need to be more aggressive in 2024. The combination of skill talent and the fact that Cousins will need to hold off the upcoming rookie on the depth chart will ultimately lead to Cousins being more aggressive in 2024.
Tier Label: System QB who you can make the playoffs with, good luck getting more.

#17. Baker Mayfield

In 2023, Baker Mayfield threw for 4,044 passing yards and 28 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, which were all career bests. This career year ended in Mayfield being invited to the 2024 Pro Bowl Games, eventually earning the MVP. This unexpected career revival shows how Mayfield persevered and showed how new environments can have extreme impacts on individual players. Mayfield entered 2023 on a “prove it” one-year contract where, if he performed at a below-average level, this could have ultimately spelled doom for his NFL career; fortunately, Mayfield performed well enough to earn a three-year contract extension. Mayfield had 25 big-time throws and 22 turnover-worthy plays overall in 2023; however, Mayfield performed at an elite level during his last four games. During these final four games, Mayfield registered a top-10 passing grade, highlighted by a Week 15 win on the road in Green Bay, which ultimately launched the Buccaneers to a playoff berth.
Mayfield had to play under eight different head coaches in his first six seasons, and he did not ultimately break. However, Baker’s critical question in 2024 is just how much more turnover he can take. Dave Canales left his position as Tampa’s offensive coordinator to become Carolina’s new head coach, and his play-calling was a critical factor in helping Mayfield have a career resurgence. Canales was able to maximize Mayfield’s strengths and consistently gave him favorable situations, and Canales also helped resurrect Geno Smith’s career in Seattle the year prior. Geno Smith’s play declined last season without Canales, and it is a fair concern to have if the same thing will happen in Tampa Bay in 2024 as well. Baker clearly uses doubters and haters as fuel, and he hopes to continue his career rebirth with new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen. Baker was also one of the better quarterback actors of his time, and I hope to see some new commercials featuring Mayfield in the future.
Tier Label: Equal Part System QB and Equal Part Capable of Being the System.

#18. Tua Tagovailoa

In the 2023 season, Tua Tagovailoa showcased his potential as a quarterback, leading the entire NFL in passing grade during the regular season with an impressive 88.9. He also ranked third in the NFL in big-time throws with 35. However, it’s worth noting that he had a 3.5% turnover-worthy play rate, the highest among the top 5 quarterbacks in big-time throws. He also had 25 turnover-worthy plays, the 5th most in the entire NFL. When everything is going according to plan, Tua can be an elite quarterback, and Coach Mcdaniels’ play calling strategy is instrumental in getting Tua’s first read open, as Tua had the lowest time to throw of any starting quarterback in the NFL in 2023 at 2.33 seconds.
Interestingly, Tua also had the most turnover-worthy in the NFL when there was no pressure, which leads me to believe that he struggles to improvise past the initial play design and as expected. His passing grade takes a significant dip when he is pressured, as he does not have elite pocket movement or athleticism to escape. Watching Dolphins games over the previous two seasons, I see that Tua has a decent enough arm for the NFL. However, it does not allow him to have a large margin of error either. I also believe that Tua depends on Coach McDaniel far too much, and there are far too many instances of Tua not adjusting pre-snap and having a limited ability to process post-snap. Biggest question I have is, Will Coach Mcdaniels pull a Mcvay and do a Goff/Stafford type trade with a qb in a tier above? Kyler Murray type player makes sense in a trade.
Tier Label: System QB who is extremely lucky to have Tyreek Hill, has extreme noodle arm that will get exposed.

Tier 6: Sophomore Quarterbacks minus CJ Stroud

#19. Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson was limited to only 98 dropbacks in 2023. However, Richardson showed some extremely strong traits in this small sample size. Richardson was able to make very impressive off-balance throws using his top-5 NFL arm strength and was lethal when he decided to leave the pocket and scramble for yards. This list is purely for Franchise quarterback rankings; however, it would be a disservice to you readers, not to mention that Richardson averaged 0.74 fantasy points per dropback during his time on the field, which ranked #1 in the NFL. Richardson also was only able to play the majority of snaps in just two games during this timeframe, and he was able to finish as the QB4 and QB2 overall in fantasy points for those weeks, so there is potential fantasy football stardom lurking here. Expanding on his fantasy value, he averaged six attempts for 34 yards and scored four rushing touchdowns, accounting for nearly 20% of Colt’s rushing attempts during this same timeframe. Although Richardson missed most of the season, Shane Steichen’s first season in Indianapolis was a success, as the Colts were legitimately competitive last season with Gardner Minshew. The Colts led the NFL in pace, averaging 24 seconds per snap, also led the NFL with a nearly 17% no-huddle rate, and ran RPOs on over 18% of their snaps, which all ranked #1 in the NFL in 2023. I believe this play style perfectly fits Richardson, and if he can stay healthy, it will result in the Colts being a significant surprise team in the AFC.

Richardson could only play 162 snaps last season, as he suffered a concussion in Week 2, which ended his week early and forced him to miss Week 3, and of course, in Week 5, Richardson suffered his season-ending shoulder injury. Although Richardson has elite Cam Newton-like size and strength, he could greatly benefit from sliding more or getting out of bounds in 2024 to stay healthy. The Colts also selected WR Adonai Mitchell in the 2nd round of the 2024 NFL Draft to add to a potent offense that already includes talented running back Jonathon Taylor and wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Richardson’s primary goal in 2024 should be to stay healthy as he has a rocket arm paired with elite rushing ability; he also must take a massive step in his processing. However, he has both the coaching and supporting cast to do so.

#20. Bryce Young

Bryce Young’s situation in Carolina last year was about as bad as it can get for a young quarterback as Frank Reich and the Panthers organization failed him. The combination of play calling and lack of talent on the Panthers offense left Young having to make tough throws in his rookie year. According to FTN, Young averaged only 1.63 yards of separation per pass attempt when targeting wide receivers and tight ends last season, which was good for the fourth-lowest number in the NFL last season, and Carolina only had 34 total wide receiver receptions in which the targeted receiver had at least three yards of separation. At the same time, his receivers and tight ends averaged 2.7 yards after the catch per pass attempt, which ranked very low compared to the NFL average. Young also only had 140 passing attempts in which a skill position player went in motion before the snap, which only accounted for under 27% of his passing attempts, and overall, the Panthers ranked 28th out of 32 NFL teams in overall use of motion at 35%. These stats all point to Carolina being a very uncreative, slow, stagnant offense that heavily relied on a nearly 35-year-old Adam Thielen to get open, which was not exactly the blueprint to success for Young. Young also had to deal with a poor offensive line last year as he was sacked a Carolina franchise-record 60 times in 2023 for a 12% adjusted sack rate (5th highest in NFL). Young also faced pressure on nearly 40% of his dropbacks in 2023, which was suitable for a top-10 highest rate in the NFL.

Despite these negative statistics, I am very bullish on a Bryce Young Sophomore season comeback season, as Carolina did everything in their power this offseason to set their #1 pick up for success. The Panthers traded for Dionte Johnson this offseason to remedy their WR separation issues, as Johnson has ranked near the top of ESPN’s open score metric and is known for his separation skills. The Panthers also traded into the first round to select Xavier Legette, who combines his elite size and speed to hopefully provide Carolina with much more after-the-catch potential, making Young’s life easier. The Panthers also selected RB Jonathon Brooks, whom many had ranked as the top running back in the class. Brooks excels at catching the ball out of the backfield and should be a seismic upgrade over Miles Sanders and Chubba Hubbard. The Panthers also signed multiple veteran offensive linemen, which should cut down on his high-pressure % numbers from 2023. Finally, the essential addition for Young was the hiring of Dave Canales as the Panther’s next Head Coach; Canales comes off of two straight seasons in which he has helped rebirth careers as he coached Geno Smith in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 to career numbers in each season as each franchises Quarterbacks coach. These factors will likely lead Bryce Young to have a bounce-back year in 2024.

#21. Will Levis

Will Levis’s first NFL start wasn’t until week 8 in 2023. However, the second half of the NFL season showed he is a very entertaining gunslinger. According to Pro Football Focus, Levis ended up with 16 big-time throws against 14 turnover-worth plays last season and managed two games with a passing grade above 70. After watching a few Titan games in September, compared to when Levis took the reins, the Tennesse Titans had a significantly better chance of winning NFL football games. Levis has a prototypical NFL size of 6’3, 235 lbs., with above-average mobility and excellent arm strength. Levis has the arm talent to be a solid starting quarterback in the NFL but will need to learn when to grip it and rip it and when not to force the issue, as he nearly had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws.

Levis also needs to do a much better job protecting himself from hits when he leaves the pocket, as he took some unnecessary hits during his rookie year last year. The eye test shows that Levis can generate elite velocity on his throws; however, his inconsistent footwork sometimes causes him to miss on some “layup throws.” While watching the Titans play, Levis sometimes reminded me of Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming. Suppose Levis can clean up his footwork and mechanics as Josh Allen has been able to do. In that case, Levis will significantly improve his ball placement and accuracy and become a franchise quarterback.

Tier 7: Quarterbacks With Hot Seats

#22. Geno Smith

Geno Smith has managed to piece together two very competent seasons of quarterback play for Seattle in 2022 and 2023. When Smith signed a contract extension with the Seattle Seahawks after the 2022 season, critics viewed the move as a risk; however, Smith has now accomplished what nobody in my memory has ever done in the NFL: go from a first-round bust who broke a teammates jaw in the locker room over less than $1000, to a career backup, to finally becoming a competent starting quarterback in the NFL. Last year, Smith increased his big-time throw rate from 5.4% to 6% and subtracted his turnover-worthy play % from 4.2% to 3.5%, according to Pro Football Focus. Smith was forced to miss two games due to a groin injury in 2023 and was rumored to be playing through pain all season, so some of his total passing numbers could be much better.

Further research into Smith reveals four distinct chapters in the past two NFL seasons. The first half of the 2022 season was great as Smith was the third highest-graded passer in the league; however, during the second half of the 2022 season, Smith led the league in turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus. Fast forwarding to the first half of last season, Smith had more turnover-worthy plays (13) than big-time throws (11), according to Pro Football Focus, but then from week ten forward, he finished in the top five in both passing grade and big-time throws. The biggest question facing Smith this season is which of the four Geno chapters we will be getting? A top 5-10 graded quarterback, or a quarterback who turns it over more than he makes big plays? Being 33 years old and entering the final year of his contract in which he has guaranteed money, Seattle does not view Smith as a long-term option. I’m sure Smith doesn’t mind the doubt as he resurrected his career in a rare fashion, and he is 100% the type of quarterback who can get a win on any given Sunday.

#23. Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson has had an extremely strange last two years that have made it near impossible to determine exactly who he is as an NFL quarterback and what he is capable of at this point in his career. Watching him multiple times last season, it is clear that he still employs his moonshot deep ball in his repertoire and can still hit his receiver deep in stride when the opportunities present themselves. Wilson has been considered one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL since he was drafted, and he has never been afraid to chuck it deep as he had a 10.2-yard average target depth and completed 48.4% of these deep throws in his rookie year. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson was rated top-five in the NFL in big-time throws when pressured and ranked as a top-10 quarterback in overall total big-time throws in 2023; however, Wilson still ranked only 21st in Pro Football Focus’s passing grade.

Although his big-time throw rates over his two seasons in a Broncos uniform were in elite company among his NFL quarterback peers, these rates with the Broncos were the two of the three lowest rates that Wilson has ever recorded for a full season in his career. Wilson also used to thrive with a time-to-throw average above 3 seconds in Seattle, as he was highly elusive, giving him the crucial time to find potential deep shots. However, as he has aged and lost some of his athleticism, this has resulted in too many sacks. Wilson took over 100 sacks in his two years in Denver, which was the most in the NFL, and too many times, Wilson seemed to either fall down to avoid a hit or throw the ball away far too early. This points toward him losing some athleticism and unfortunately, he has not adjusted to his aging very well. I also would much prefer to see Justin Fields get an opportunity in Pittsburgh for fantasy reasons and rooting for Fields to immediately succeed after leaving Chicago. Full disclosure as a Packer fan: Seeing Russell Wilson struggle and, in turn, Seattle enter a rebuild gives the slightest revenge for the Packer’s 2014 NFC Championship game collapse in Seattle. Exactly what version of Russell Wilson will show up in Pittsburgh is one of the more giant wild cards of the entire 2024 NFL season; however, when he is at his best, it is avoiding pressure and pushing the ball down the field.

#24. Derek Carr

Last season for the New Orleans Saints, Dereck Carr passed for 25 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. According to Pro Football Focus however, he finished with only 17 big-time throws compared to 14 turnover-worthy plays, which was a significantly smaller ratio than his TD-INT. Dereck Carr has recorded a Pro Football Focus passing grade between 77.5 and 83.5 in four of the previous five seasons, and this illustrates that at this point in his career, what we are seeing with Carr is what we are going to get. During this same five-year timeframe, Carr has never had a turnover-worthy play rate above 3.3%, and while Carr is never going to be the guy who takes extreme risks, he has managed to hit on a big-time throw percentage of 6.7%.

Ever since Carr broke his leg against Indianapolis in week 16 of 2016, Carr has left far too many potential big plays out on the field. Carr has rightfully earned a reputation of being overly quick to check it down to a running back as, again, according to Pro Football Focus, he has finished in the top 10 of NFL quarterback’s check-down % each of the last six seasons, however, Carr has ranked in the top 12 among quarterbacks in the same timeframe in 20-plus yard passes and an average depth of target (8.9 yards per target). These condescending averages illustrate what an eye test would tell you in that Carr employs the Jon Gruden mentality of “check down or touchdown,” if any of you readers were lucky enough to have Alvin Kamara in fantasy football, you would agree. Kamara has lost some explosiveness and overall ability; however, his fantasy scores did not suffer as Carr fed him 6.6 targets per game in his best 2019 Philip Rivers to Austin Ekeler impression, which was over a full target more per game than second place (Breece Hall finished second at 5.3 targets per game and who’s average targets per game was significantly skewed by 16 in week 16).

The 6.6 targets per game turned into 75 catches on the 86 targets (the 6.6 per game) for only 466 yards in the 13 games Kamara played, which was an average of 6.2 yards per catch, for reference Emmitt Smith has the lowest yards per catch of all time at 6.3 yards per catch. Other than 2023 and an outlier 2019 with Drew Brees in his struggling to throw the ball downfield due to injury and age where Kamara averaged 6.6 yards per catch, his previous low in yards per catch was 8.6, nearly two and a half yards more than last season with Carr. However, Carr’s most fatal flaw continues to be that he is a horrible red-zone quarterback. In 2022, his last season with the Raiders, Carr finished dead out of 33 NFL quarterbacks who met the criteria to qualify in red zone passer rating at 74.6, which was the worst in the NFL since 2019. Carr managed to improve on this in 2023 slightly, however, he still finished in the bottom half of the league. Overall, these factors point to Carr being a frustrating player to watch due to what he seems capable of versus what he puts on tape and if New Orleans finds themselves out of the playoff hunt late in the season, Carr will be a prime candidate to get benched.

#25. Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew has spent time with three teams in his five NFL seasons and has developed a reputation for being a grinder who overcomes obstacles with his energetic and eccentric personality. Minshew was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars and finished with a 7-13 career record in his three seasons in Duvall, while producing solid numbers as their starting quarterback – he had over 5500 passing yards and a 37:11 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Minshew then signed with the Philadelphia Eagles to back up Jalen Hurts and, after a Super Bowl appearance as a backup, signed with the Indianapolis Colts in 2023. Minshew was initially unable to win the starting job over fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson; however, when Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in week 4, Minshew took over the starting quarterback duties.

Last season, as the Colts starting quarterback, Minshew won seven games and nearly secured a very unexpected playoff berth for the Colts. He set career highs in passing yards, completions, and rushing touchdowns. Minshew was rewarded for these efforts by being named an alternate for the 2024 NFL Pro Bowl Games. Minshew signed with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason and is expected to be the Raiders starting quarterback week one in 2024 over the incumbent Aiden O’Connell. Both O’Connell and Minshew started multiple games last year, and according to Pro Football Focus, they finished 29th and 33rd last season in passing grade. Hopefully, Minshew will be able to make Davante Adams’s life a little bit better, and his personality meshes perfectly with that of coach Anthony Pierce. It would not be shocking to see the Raiders win a few games they have no business winning on paper, similar to when they beat Kansas City on Christmas last season. Minshew has perfect traits to become a long-term NFL backup or a potential bridge quarterback a la Ryan Fitzpatrick and he should be in the NFL for the next decade in some capacity.

#26. Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones had the lowest passer rating of the three quarterbacks who took snaps last year for the Giants behind Tommy DeVito and Tyrod Taylor and was only able play in six games. Jones has yet to crack seven yards per attempt in any of his five seasons as a starter for the New York Giants. Jones also has finished with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, according to Pro Football Focus, and he has been in the bottom 10 of the NFL in average depth of target in this same timeframe. While the Giants did upgrade their receiving group with the early selection of Malik Nabers, this is not nearly enough as Jones has always been a below-average starting quarterback in the NFL. Losing Saquon Barkley to the Eagles will also considerably strain Jones’s 2024 outlook and now after signing his contract extension in 2023, he is also a very costly one as well.

Jones finds his most success when he can hit his first read with an efficient, quick passing game and when he uses his excellent athleticism to escape the pocket when in danger and in turn create rushing production. The fact that Jones is coming off an ACL tear makes me worry about how his athleticism will be affected and also if the injury will cause him to become more cautious with his body. Jones is scheduled to be a full participant in training camp and is expected to be the Giants’ starting quarterback in week 1 in 2024. I am unable to see many scenarios where Jones is New York’s starting quarterback after 2024 or even after Thanksgiving this season. Jones could hang around in the NFL as an athletic backup with good size and draft pedigree (for some reason, it still matters to some GMs) and win a game or two in a pinch for an NFL Franchise. However, his future is as bleak as any quarterback in the entire NFL.

Tier 8: Rookie Quarterbacks

#27. Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams is a 22-year-old, 6’1 215 lb. quarterback from USC. Williams began his collegiate career at Oklahoma before transferring to USC after his first year. In his first season at USC, Williams won the Heisman Trophy as he threw for over 4,500 yards and led the Trojans to a near playoff berth and ultimately finished at 11-3 overall. Last season, Williams and USC faltered to a 7-5 record, and Williams decided to declare for the 2024 NFL draft at the conclusion of 2023. Using an eye test, Williams has the natural components to be a real difference-making football player in year one. Talented pass catchers surround him and he is fortunate to be protected by what should be a decent offensive line group, which is very rare for a #1 overall pick to walk into. One question facing Williams is whether the superhero risky plays at USC were out of need due to a poor offensive line and skill players, or if this is who William is as a player. If Williams commits to playing in structure in Chicago, he could have a historic rookie year; however, if he continues to play backyard football too often, we may have to hear from Bears fans again that they want another new quarterback. Williams has natural arm talent that cannot be coached and is rarely replicated, and he displays it with almost every pass.
Quarterbacks being able to “make every throw” is a cliche used when evaluating quarterbacks and rarely fits said prospect. In this case, Williams can make every throw, as he can produce exceptional velocity from various arm angles and throwing platforms, and it never turns off. Other quarterback prospects who thrive on making plays out of structure tend to suffer in the accuracy department (Manziel); however, this is not the case for Williams, and this sets him apart. He consistently places the ball in spots where only his receivers can make a play from nearly limitless throwing positions. In this modern era of quarterbacks who thrive scrambling out of the pocket and making plays out of structure, it is difficult to find a better prospect as I haven’t seen many signal-callers in the FBS, and very few in the NFL who are better than Williams at making pass rushers whiff while keeping his eyes downfield and maintaining his passing vision downfield. The comparisons between Patrick Mahomes and Williams are not hyperbole, as Mahomes is the best in the world at manipulating his pocket to allow himself room to either throw or take off and run, which is also an ability Williams displays in every snap.
At times, this playmaking ability has its downfalls, as Williams relied far too often on his out-of-structure playability and “hero ball” to try to create positive plays for the Trojan offense last season. The “hero ball” strategy led to Williams missing some easy plays, and Williams also had 50 dropbacks with a time to throw off over six seconds in 2023, which led the FBS. This need to play out of structure has led to Williams developing bad habits, ultimately leading to poor decisions. Far too often in 2023, Williams dropbacks were square to the line of scrimmage, which in turn made it more difficult to get into a fundamental ideal throwing position. However, he did this to set up defenders and create new lanes in the pocket to run through. Williams also displayed too much carelessness when attempting to scramble, often carrying the football loose on his side like a loaf of bread, making it easier for opposing pass rushers to knock it out.
I believe that a majority of these issues will naturally fix themselves because he no longer needs to constantly think about scrambling now that he is free of USC’s terrible 2023 offensive line. You would be hard-pressed to find a more talented quarterback prospect than Caleb Williams, and it is why he has been nearly unanimously projected to be the No. 1 overall pick for multiple years. Williams’s arm talent and football ability are unteachable. He is the prototypical modern-age quarterback who excels at scrambling and making things happen that do not seem possible while also displaying pure fundamentals working in the pocket and deciphering defenses. A perfect prospect does not exist, and the worries about Williams’s reliance on backyard football are real. Williams will need to learn to play on time and take what the defenses give him; however, his raw ability to make something out of nothing and create magic is why NFL executives and analysts project him to become a sure-fire franchise quarterback.

#28. Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels is a 23-year-old 6’4 210 lb. quarterback who is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner from LSU. Daniels enters the NFL as the No. 2 overall pick and presumptive starter for the Commanders right out of the gate. Daniels’ dual-threat skills will allow him to have a very high floor from his first snap because of how much stress he can put onto defenses with the consistent threat of him picking up yards with his legs. Daniels started his college career at Arizona State and after two seasons as the Sun Devils starter in which he displayed great potential, he transferred to LSU to play for Coach Brian Kelly. In his first year as LSU’s starter in 2021, he showed tremendous improvement from his time at Arizona State, as he completed 69% of his passes for 2913 passing yards and 17 passing touchdowns against three interceptions while also running for 885 yards and 11 additional rushing touchdowns.
This past season as a Senior in 2023, Daniels reached an entirely different level, completing 72% of his passes for 3812 passing yards and 40 touchdowns against four interceptions while also running for 1134 rushing yards and ten more rushing touchdowns and he was rewarded for these efforts with the Heisman Trophy. Daniels was blessed with two first-round wide receivers and a solid offensive line, however, a horrible defense kept LSU from any significant postseason success. This lack of defense led to LSU playing in many high-scoring affairs, with Daniels being forced to put the Tigers on his back and carry the team to wins.
Overall, Daniels’s passing game is a work in progress, but he should be aided by having Kliff Kingsbury as his Offensive Coordinator. Daniels has decent accuracy compared to other starting quarterbacks in the NFL, but he sometimes misses some easy throws he is capable of making. Daniels has fantastic ball placement on his passes and is great at leading his intended target, allowing his receivers to pick up additional yards after the catch. He also has exceptional deep-ball accuracy, as the eye test shows that he can put excellent touch on the football, throws a very catchable ball, and more often than not he gets the football out on time. Daniels is exceptionally patient, sometimes even too patient, as he sometimes has an issue with holding on to the football too long which most college quarterbacks do.
At times, Daniels struggled to anticipate receivers getting open, and he had to see his receivers get open before ultimately pulling the trigger. Head Coach Brian Kelly did a fantastic job of developing Daniels during their two years together. Daniels has shown legitimate improvement in his fundamentals as a pocket passer, getting through his progressions and getting the ball out to the correct receiver. Daniels is also very aggressive as he challenges defenses downfield while displaying his prominent scrambling ability, and he does a great job of avoiding interceptions and protecting the football. As a runner, Daniels displays excellent ball security, which is a huge asset for him entering the NFL, and he is super elusive in the open field, where he will dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge defenders like a Diet Lamar Jackson. Daniels also has a robust physical build that allows him to take hits; however, he will need to learn how and when to slide in the NFL, as he was far too liberal with his body, finishing runs last year at LSU to minimize his injury risk. I am very intrigued to see how Daniels performs next season, and I will be targeting him heavily in fantasy football due to his rushing ability.

#29. JJ McCarthy

JJ McCarthy is a 21-year-old 6’3 205 lb. quarterback who played his college career at Michigan and won the starting quarterback job for the Wolverines in 2022, where he led Michigan to a Big Ten Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance. Last season in 2023, he guided Michigan to a 15-0 season that culminated in a College Football National Championship. McCarthy’s calling card is his ability and willingness to make throws over the middle of the field, a highly transferable skill to bring to the NFL. Due to Michigan’s overall dominance, McCarthy didn’t log as many drop backs or attempts as some of his other peers in the 2024 NFL Draft; however, he was able to attempt just under 100 throws between the hashes last season at Michigan.
According to PFF, McCarthy had a 91.2 passing grade with an 86% adjusted completion percentage on these throws, which was good for top 10 among FBS quarterbacks. McCarthy’s pocket movement and awareness aid his ability to attack between the hashes, as he has shown that knows how to create throwing lanes for himself. He also made significant improvements in his footwork and staying in the pocket during his two years starting at Michigan. McCarthy is also capable of making plays when things break down as he is a solid athlete and was even used on designed runs at Michigan; his performance in the National Championship game reminded me of Brock Purdy’s second half in the NFC Championship game against Detroit where Purdy used his legs to aid the 49ers comeback.
I have watched a good number of Michigan games in the last two years, and the biggest concern for McCarthy is when he is asked to throw outside the numbers. In 2023, when asked to make these higher degrees of difficulty throws, he ranked 50th out of over 100 eligible FBS quarterbacks with a 27% uncatchable rate. His uncatchable rate on all other passes is under 11%, which was both top 5 in the FBS, an extreme gap rooted in poor footwork. At times, McCarthy overstrides or chops his feet on the outside throws; however, this could be cleaned up in the NFL with good coaching. Another concern about McCarthy is his ability to get through his progressions and getting past his first read. While watching his games last year, when McCarthy had his first read open, he rarely hesitated and hit his passing windows. However, when his first read is not open, he tends stares down the receiver and is reluctant to get to his other progressions. This sometimes leads to him forcing throws, and this is where the great majority of his turnover-worthy passes came from.
McCarthy is very young and far from a finished product, and he brings a high floor of being successful at throwing over the middle of the field combined with being a good athlete with a winning mentality. He reminds me a lot of Brock Purdy in that he is best at using play-action and attacking between the hashes. McCarthy will also benefit significantly from throwing to a highly talented group of pass catchers in Minnesota with an excellent offensive Head Coach, and time will tell if he can take full advantage of his opportunity and become a franchise quarterback in Minnesota.

#30. Drake Maye

Drake Maye is a 21-year-old 6’4, 230 lb. quarterback from the University of North Carolina who took over as the starter for the Tar Heels in 2022 after Washington drafted Sam Howell. In 2022, Maye led UNC to a 9-5 record, including an appearance in the ACC Championship game. Last season in 2023, Maye led the Tar Heels to an 8-4 record and he decided to declare for the NFL draft at the conclusion of the season.
Maye has an elite arm, which helps him get the football to his intended targets even when he isn’t in natural throwing positions. Maye also has the raw arm strength to throw the ball both extremely far and the velocity to fit the football into tiny, tight windows. Like JJ McCarthy, Maye has an elite ability to operate in the middle of the field between the hashes as, according to Pro Football Focus, he had a 94.8 passing grade when throwing over the middle, leading the entire FBS with more than 50 attempts. Maye is on time with his progressions and is aware of holding underneath defenders with his eyes while snapping and throwing the ball right past them with solid anticipation. Maye is also an outstanding athlete and can succeed when the play breaks down; however, he does not rely on it.
At times, Maye must make better decisions when facing pressure, leading to easily avoidable turnover-worthy plays. Another issue that pops up when watching Maye is his accuracy, as he had a 75% adjusted completion percentage last season, which ranked 25th in the FBS. A few times while watching him last season, he had throws sail high on him due to poor footwork, while at the time, he had shown the ability to make very difficult off-platform throws with pinpoint accuracy. This poor footwork sometimes leads to inconsistency on easy throws and far too many instances of him missing simple throws from clean pockets. Maye also struggles with pressure at times, as he had a 19.6% pressure-to-sack rate last year, which is a bit higher than what the best quarterbacks in the NFL sit at a 10-15% pressure-to-sack rate.
Dealing with pressure will be a crucial area for Maye to improve upon to be a successful starting NFL quarterback, as there are many instances on film of him questioningly deciding to scramble into the pressure, leading to avoidable sacks. Overall, there is a ton to like about Drake Maye’s potential ceiling as an NFL starting quarterback, however he will need to improve his mechanics and decision-making to reach it.

#31. Bo Nix

Bo Nix is a 6’2, 220 lb. 24-year-old quarterback who spent the first three years of his college career at Auburn, starting as a true freshman before transferring to the University of Oregon for his final two collegiate years. Nix guided the Ducks to consecutive double-digit winning seasons and finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting last season. As both a competitor and physically, Nix has the essential components to become a starting NFL quarterback. Nix is more experienced than the other quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round, playing 61 games in college.
Playing 61 football games in the SEC and PAC-12 without any significant durability issues is impressive. On the surface, Nix’s passer rating of 188.3 at Oregon last season is extremely impressive, however this was aided by the fact that Oregon attempted over 200 screen passes and RPOs in 2023, which accounted for over 40% of his passing attempts. This led to Nix’s average target depth being 6.8 yards per pass, which was by far the lowest in the 2024 NFL Draft Class. This is very concerning as it raises whether Nix can process at an elite level or was just not asked to do it much at Oregon. In the limited number of times Nix was asked to throw deep, he was reasonably effective; however, when he was required to put some extra mustard on a throw and fit it in a tight window, he struggled.
Nix’s limited arm talent will require him to be nearly perfect on every throw at the next level, as he will not be able to get away with being late or throwing behind a potential receiver in the same way as someone like a Josh Allen or Justin Herbert can. These elite arm talent quarterbacks can get away with this because their extra velocity allows the ball to fit into tighter windows. Nix struggled when asked to throw from each hash to the opposite side of the field as his lower velocity throws allowed defenders to jump routes more quickly and make plays on the ball. This also limited his receiver’s yards after catch opportunities as they would get immediately tackled after catching the ball. Bo Nix brings extensive experience; however, questions of how much higher his ceiling is with both his lack of elite arm talent and older age.
Some areas where he performed well will translate to the NFL, as he was very successful at avoiding negative plays and displayed great short-passing accuracy, giving him a relatively high floor as a decent backup quarterback option. Compared to the other quarterbacks on this list, Nix has no elite passing trait you can pick out, and he has a limited ceiling, which makes it challenging to explain spending valuable draft capital on him.

Tier 9: Ninth Circle of Hell: Treachery

#32. Deshaun Watson

Not worth wasting time, he sucks and shouldn’t be playing. Not making light of victims.

Overall 2024 NFL QB Rankings: ALL TIERS